Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 11-15

Major commodities prices have mostly decreased during last week including Oil (Brent), gold and silver prices. The recent U.S GDP and NF payroll report were better than anticipated, which contributed to the rally of the US dollar. Moreover, the decision of ECB to lower its cash rate to 0.25% has also strengthened the USD. The latest decision of S&P to downgrade France’s credit rate is also likely to weaken the Euro early next week. Will the US dollar continue to rally? How will this trend affect commodities prices? Here are the main reports, speeches and events that could stir up the markets next week: U.S industrial production, German GDP for the third quarter, BOE inflation report, China’s new loans, Japan’s current account, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB climate count, Bernanke and speaks, U.S federal budget balance, Yellen testifies, ECOFIN summit, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of November 11th to November 15th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, GB, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 11th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly update will refer to the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the latest update, the total loans rose for the second consecutive month; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;

Tuesday, November 12th

09:30 – GB CPI (October 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding September 2013, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.7%; if the inflation rate resumes its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;

Wednesday, November 13th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 41.7k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.7%;

10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2013 and 2014;

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press conference along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 8th;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to October 2013; this report suggests the government debt growth and thus may affect the shifts in U.S dollar. In the latest report regarding September the deficit declined by $75 billion; if the deficit continues to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about next year’s budget cuts;

00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will talks to educators in Washington, D.C.;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held at the second week of October, the average rate reached 2.66% – the lowest rate since August 2013;

Thursday, November 14th

06:30 –German Third Quarter GDP 2013: In the second quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.7%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for October analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: In the previous month, retail sales in Great Britain slightly rose by 0.6%; this report could affect the British pound;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 8th; in the last report the jobless claims fell by 9k to reach 336k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will take place in Brussels as the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest changes in Europe and the potential ramifications of the latest ECB rate drop;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report regarding August 2013, exports rose by 1.8% and imports grew by 2.1%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit widened from $1.2 billion in July to $1.3 million in August; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update regarding June the goods and services deficit expanded to $38.8 billion;

15:00 – Yellen’s Testimony: Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will testify in front of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate. This will be her confirmation hearing for her nomination of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve position;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of November 8th;

Friday, November 15h

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the recent update, the annual CPI declined to 1.1%, which is well below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation continues to fall, it could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (September 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of September. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding August 2013, manufacturing sales fell by 0.2%;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of October; as of September, the production increased by 0.6%; this report may affect the USD currency;

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