Financial Market Preview for November 16-20

The recent recovery of the U.S. dollar also led to a fall in commodities prices including oil, gold, copper and silver. Even though the market is more incline to believe the Fed will raise rates in December, it doesn’t seem to be fully priced in. This week, the main events in the U.S. will be the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the updated CPI. Other reports that will be released include:  Japan’s GDP for Q3, German ZEW economic sentiment, BOJ’s rate decision, U.S. industrial production, Canada’s retail sales, GB’s CPI, Philly Fed index, EU CPI, and U.S. building permits. So let’s breakdown the economic calendar for the week of November 16th to 20th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 16th

23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q3 – Preliminary estimate: In the second quarter of the year, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.3%; this time, the current estimates are that economy contracted by 0.1%, year over year, in Q3; if so, this will mean the Japanese economy is in a recession;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the latest flash estimate, the CPI remained flat with annual rate of 0% in October; the CPI is estimated to remain unchanged;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding September 2015, manufacturing sales slipped by 0.2%; currently, market expects a gain of 0.3% in October;

Tuesday, November 17th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly report, the CPI slipped to -0.1% in September. The current projections are for the inflation to remained unchanged in October at -0.1%;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for October. In September, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell again to 1.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment bounces back, this may imply an increase in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a rise to 6.7;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the developments in the core consumer price index for October 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in September, the CPI decreased by 0.2%; the core CPI inched up by 0.2%; this time, the CPI is expected to grow again by 0.2% and core CPI to also rise by 0.2%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during October; as of September, industrial production declined by 0.2%;

Wednesday, November 18th

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for October 2015; in the previous report, housing starts rose to 1,210 houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during September, building permits slipped to 1,100K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,150K;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 13th;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the past, there were occasions when minutes were revised to account for the latest economic developments. This time, we may see some reference to the strong NFP report and its impact on the Fed’s decision to raise rates in December. Even without revisions, this report is likely to move the market considering the NFP report was better than expected;

Thursday, November 19th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to ramp up the bank’s asset purchase program. Japan’s economy isn’t doing well, but the current estimates are for the BOJ to keep its policy unchanged;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 13th; in the last report, jobless claims remained at 276K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly decline to 272K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey, the growth rate dropped from -6 in September to -4.5 in October. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to 0.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 13th;

Friday, November 20th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI edged up again by 0.2%, M-o-M;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding September 2015, manufacturing sales remained flat;

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