Financial Market Preview for October 12-16

The minutes of the FOMC didn’t offer much news and left the market guessing as to the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. On this week’s agenda we have the U.S. JOLTS, BOJ’s minutes of last meeting, EU CPI, U.S. PPI, Canada’s manufacturing sales, China’s CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s trade balance, OPEC and IEA reports, and U.S. retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of October 12th to 16th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 12th

18:20 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to deliver a speech: “Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington DC.;

00:50 – BOJ’s policy meeting minutes: The minutes may reveal what’s up ahead for BOJ including whether its members are incline to raise the current QE program in the next meeting at the end of the month;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for September 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;

Tuesday, October 13th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month but is expected to change course again and fall in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly update, the CPI slipped to 0% in August. The current projections are for the inflation to remained unchanged in September;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. In August, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 12.1 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment declines again, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a fall to 6.8;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show an updated (as of September) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2015 and 2016;

Wednesday, October 14th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate falls, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowly cooling down; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch down to 1.8%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 5.9% — and this month the PPI is expected to remain low at -5.9%;

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the previous report, this index grew by 2.9%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 3.1%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB rose by 1.2K; the rate of unemployment slipped to 5.5% and is expected to remain at this rate this time;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the previous August update, retail sales rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.1%; current expectations are for a 0.1% drop in core retail sales in September;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2015. In last month’s report regarding August, this index for finished goods was flat, m-o-m; the core PPI rose again by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to show a fall of 0.2%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 9th;

Thursday, October 15th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for August the rate of unemployment edged down to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 17.4K people. The weakness in China could weaken the Australian labor market, which may prompt the RBA to act (see here the recent report);

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for September 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in August, the CPI decreased by 0.1%; the core CPI edged up by 0.1%; this time, the CPI is expected the tick down by 0.2% and core CPI to rise again by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 9th; in the previous report, jobless claims decreased to 263K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly rise to 269K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey, the growth rate dropped from +8.3 in August to -6 in September. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to -1.8 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 9th;

Friday, October 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI inched down to annual rate of 0.1% in August; the CPI is estimated to have dropped by 0.1% in September;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding August 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 1.7%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during September; as of August, industrial production slipped by 0.4%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index dropped to 85.7;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for August, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for July, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.75 million; current market predictions are for the number to slightly increase to 5.77 million;

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