Financial Market Forecast for October 13 -17

The recovery in the USD took a turn as its fell against leading currencies. The huge selloffs also led to a rally for precious metals prices. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting along with the revised down IMF economic outlook contributed to the recent fall of the USD. This week the main reports, speeches and events include: China’s CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S retail sales,  Philly Fed index, U.S PPI, FOMC Chair Yellen speaks, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S industrial production, Canada’s CPI, GB employment report, ECOFIN summit and U.S housing starts.  So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of October 13th to 17th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 13th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly report, China’s trade balance expanded to a $49.8 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to drop to $41.2 billion; if the surplus contracts further, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t progressing and may adversely affect commodities prices;

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic changes in Europe, euro support mechanisms and government finances;

Tuesday, October 14th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the previous report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 1.5% during August. The current projections are for the CPI are that it had inched down again to 1.4% for September. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. During August, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell to 6.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment further dwindles, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;

10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production rose by 1%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show a 1.5% drop in industrial production, month over month;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate keeps falling, it could signal the Chinese economy is cooling down;

Wednesday, October 15th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 37.2K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.2%;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the last report regarding August, retail sales rose by 0.6% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.3%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.3% gain in core retail sales in September;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2014. In the previous report regarding August, this index for finished goods remained flat compared with July’s level; the core PPI rose again by 0.1%; this news may impact the USD;

19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the grand opening of the European Cultural Days 2014 organized by the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the previous report, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 0.4% as of September. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

Thursday, October 16th

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding August 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 2.5%;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding September, the growth rate slipped from +28 in August to +22.5 in September. If the index falls again, it may adversely impact not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 10th; in the last report the jobless claims fell to 287K;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during September; as of August, the production inched down by 0.1%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 10th;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 10th;

Friday, October 17th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will present the shifts in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for August; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.5%;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for September 2014; in the previous report, housing starts declined to 960K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during August, building permits rose slipped to 1,000K houses. If building permits change direction and rally, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing recovering (the recent U.S building permits update);

13:30 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Conference on Inequality of Business Opportunity, in Boston. The title of the speech is “Economic Opportunity;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 84.6;

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