Financial Market Outlook for September 12-16

The recent plunge in the markets on Friday seems to have been the result of the anxiety of traders over a possible rate hike by the Fed, which may occur as soon as this month. The upcoming reports from the U.S. and the upcoming speech of FOMC member Brainard could shed some light on this possibility. The main events and reports that will unfold this week include: U.S. PPI, FOMC member Brainard talks, China and U.S. industrial production, BOE and SNB rate decisions, U.S. consumer sentiment, GB employment report, U.S. CPI, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. Philly Fed index, GB CPI, U.S. retail sales, and German ZEW economic sentiment. So let’s preview the main events for the week of September 12th to 16th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 12th

18:00 – FOMC Member Brainard Speaks: Considering the market reacted very abruptly to a possible rate hike by the Fed in September, this speech could move markets especially since Brainard is a voting member and considered a dove; if she were to hint of a rate hike is likely this month, this could be enough to further raise the chances of a hike for this year; see here a speech she gave back in June, in which she pointed out her concerns over inflation getting back to 2% in the medium term; considering inflation (at least expectations and core inflation) hasn’t picked up since then, it doesn’t seem likely she would revise her stands much’;

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the latest monthly report, China industrial production edged down to annual rate of 6% — lower than market expectations; if the report shows a gain – currently the market expects a gain to 6.2% — this could ease the bearish market sentiment;

Tuesday, September 13th

09:30 – GB CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 0.6% in July; in the next report, the CPI is expected to edge up to 0.7%;

10:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He will speak at the 2016 Alcide De Gasperi Award ceremony, in Trento;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. Back in July, the ZEW indicator for Germany picked up to 0.5 points; the current estimates are for a gain to 2.8;

Wednesday, September 14th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the latest report, this index rose to 2.4%; in the next report, the index is expected to fall to 2.1%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 8.6K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 4.9% and is expected to maintain this level this time as well;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 9th;

Thursday, September 15th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last July report the rate of unemployment ticked down to 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 26.2K people (see here the recent report);

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; the SNB isn’t expected to make any major changes to its policy;

09:30 – GB Retail Sales: In the upcoming report the market expects sales to have fallen by 0.4% compared to the previous month;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey, the growth rate rose from -2.9 in July to 2 in August; in the next report, the index is expected to slightly fall to 1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: The BOE isn’t expected to introduce any new policy measures given the market conditions in Britain, at least for now, have stabilized;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 9th; in the last report, jobless claims slightly fell to 259K; in the next report, estimates are for 262K jobless claims;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to August; in the last July update, retail sales remained flat (month-over-month); core retail fell by 0.3%; in the next report, the expectations are for a fall of 0.1% and a gain of 0.3% for retail sales and core sales, respectively;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will pertain to August 2016. In the latest month’s report regarding July, this index for finished goods fell by 0.4%, m-o-m; the core PPI decreased by 0.3%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report that will be released on Friday; both core PPI and PPI are expected to rise by 0.1%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the shifts in the U.S industrial production during August; as of July, industrial production increased by 0.7%;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 9th;

Friday, September 16th

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding July 2016, manufacturing sales rose by 0.8%; this time, it’s expected to rise by 0.6%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the changes in the core consumer price index for August 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in July, the CPI remained unchanged; the core CPI  inched up by 0.1%; this time, the CPI and core CPI are expected to reach 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; Based on the previous report, the sentiment index rose to 90.4; for the next report, the index is expected to slightly rise to 91;

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