Financial Market Preview for September 14-18

The main event of the month is upon us – the FOMC meeting. Even though the expectations for a rate hike at this time are low, market volatility is still likely to pick up regardless of whether the Fed push the liftoff button or not. This event is likely to crowd down other events and reports that will take place this week. Some of these items include: U.S. CPI, minutes of recent RBA’s meeting, U.S. retail sales, BOJ rate decision, GB net borrowing, U.S. housing starts, EU CPI, U.S. current account, Philly fed survey, and Canada’s CPI. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of September 14th to 18th:  

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 14th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate, which is set at 2% as of the September meeting;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;

Tuesday, September 15th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly update, the CPI inched up by 0.1% in July. The current projections are for the inflation to remained unchanged in August;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. In July, the ZEW indicator for Germany declined to 25 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment falls again, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a drop to 18.3;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to August; in the previous July report, retail sales rose by 0.6% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.4%; current expectations are for a 0.1% gain in core retail sales in August;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during August; as of July, industrial production rose by 0.6%;

Wednesday, September 16th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the previous report, this index grew by 2.4%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 2.5%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 4.9K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.6% and is expected to remain at this rate this time;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 0.2% in August;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding July 2015, manufacturing sales picked up by 1.2%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertains to the shifts in the core consumer price index for August 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in June, the CPI increased by 0.1%; the core CPI also edged up by 0.1%; this time, the CPI is expected the tick down by 0.1% and core CPI to rise by 0.1%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 11th;

Thursday, September 17th

07:35 –BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks: Kuroda is expected to speak at the National Securities Industry Convention, in Tokyo;

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; the SNB isn’t expected to make any major changes to its policy;

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for August 2015; in the recent report, housing starts increased to 1,210 houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during July, building permits fell to 1,120K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,150K;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 11th; in the recent report, jobless claims slightly fell to 275K; the expectations are for this number to remained nearly unchanged at 276K;

13:30 – U.S. Current Account:  This is a quarterly report; last time, the current account was at a deficit of $113 billion; this time, the deficit was $111 billion;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey, the growth rate rose from +5.7 in July to +8.3 in August. This time, the index is expected to slightly fall to 6.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 11th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This will be the sixth and highly anticipated FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between September 16th and 17th. This time, the meeting will also include an update to the FOMC’s economic outlook, the dot plot and a press conference of FOMC Chair Yellen. The current expectations are low for a rate hike. But this will still be an event that is likely to move the markets regardless of the outcome. Even if there is no rate hike, the market will look on the changes to the dot plot, Yellen’s press conference, any significant changes to the wording of the statement, and any revisions to the economic outlook;

Friday, September 18th

00:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will testify before the House of Representatives Economics Committee, in Canberra;

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI remained flat, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show no change;

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