Financial Market Outlook for September 19-23

All eyes are set towards the next FOMC meeting. Even though the market has climbed down from the idea of a possible September rate hike, the market will still look for any clues for when the Fed is expected to raise its cash rate. This event will be the main item of this week’s agenda and will overshadow other news, reports and events. Nonetheless, there are some additional news items on this week’s agenda worth mentioning including: BOJ rate decision, U.S. housing starts, BOC Governor Poloz speaks, U.S. existing home sales, EU manufacturing PMI, and GB public sector net borrowing. So let’s review the main events for the week of September 19th to 23rd.

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 19th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate of 1.5% in its recent meeting;

Tuesday, September 20th

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will publish for August 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly report; in the last update, total permits remained unchanged at 1,150 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,170 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts increased to 1,210 thousand houses; in the next report, this figure is expected to edge down to 1,190 thousand houses;

17:45 – BOC Gov Poloz Speaks: He is expected to speak at the Chartered Financial Analysts Society, in Quebec;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In this Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will decided if it’s time to introduce more monetary stimulus. The BOJ will also release a revised economic outlook; considering the FOMC meeting is set this week, the BOJ isn’t likely to make any changes this time;

Wednesday, September 21st

09:30 – GB Public Sector Net Borrowing: In the upcoming report the market expects net borrowing to pick up to 10.5 billion pounds;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 16th;

19:00 –FOMC Meeting and press conference: This is the main event of the week and is highly anticipated considering this meeting includes a press conference and update to the economic outlook.  The Fed will also release its dot plot, which has overestimated the Fed’s trajectory of the rate hike path. Nonetheless, this report will still move markets especially since the markets are so sensitive to short term adjustments. If the FOMC presents a more dovish tone in its reports and in Yellen’s press conference, this could help drive back down the USD;

Thursday, September 22nd

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 16th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 260K; in the next report, estimates are for 261K claims;

14:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He will speak at the European Systemic Risk Board, in Frankfurt;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for August 2016; in July, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slightly increase to 5.45 million houses;

16:00 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 16th;

Friday, September 23rd

09:30 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last report, the EU’s PMI edged down to 51.8 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are expanding at a slower pace as of August. And Germany’s PMI also slipped to 53.6 – the industry is also expanding at a slower rate; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to decline again to 53.2;

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the core CPI didn’t move, M-o-M;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding July, sales decreased by 0.8%;

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