Financial Market Preview for September 21-25

Not only the FOMC opted out from raising rates – with only one dissenter for a rate hike in September – but it also tilted the markets as the members voiced their concerns over the global economy. This decision will continue to echo in the markets in the coming days. But another developments that could move the markets, at least in Europe, is the Sunday Greek elections. It’s a close race for now between Syriza and New Democracy. Besides these issue, this week other events and reports to consider are: U.S. GDP, FOMC Chair Yellen speaks, Greek elections results, U.S. new and existing home sales, ECB’s TLTRO, EU monetary development, ECB president Draghi talks, U.S. durable goods, and GB and German manufacturing PMI.  So let’s review the agenda for September 20th to 25th:

(All times GMT):

Sunday, September 20th

Greek Parliamentary Election: The vote will determine whether Alexis Tsipras will stay in office and receive the mandate from the Greek people to continue with the bailout plan he signed with the Germans; for now, the elections are too close to call as Syriza has a very modest gain on New Democracy; here are the possible outcomes for this elections;

Monday, September 21st

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for August 2015; in the July report, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slip to 5.50 million houses;

19:45 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is expected to talk about the commodity cycle and the Canadian economy, in Calgary;

Tuesday, September 22nd

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on recent month’s report, public net borrowing reached a deficit of 2.1 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a shift to a surplus of 8.7 billion pounds;

02:45 – China’s Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI: In the last estimate, the PMI reached 47.1; current estimates are for the PMI to inch up to 47.6 – which would mean the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a slightly slower pace;

Wednesday, September 23rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last August update, France’s PMI declined to 48.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI rose to 53.2 – the industry is expanding at a fast pace;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding July 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 0.8%;

14:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He is also expected to testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 18th;

Thursday, September 24th

10:15 – Targeted LTRO: The ECB will lend banks cash for lending it to people and companies; the last TLTRO brought in 73.8 billion Euros;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 18th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell to 264K;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to August and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of July 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by 2.2%, month over month, and all manufacturing industries increased by 0.4%; this time, however, durable goods are expected to show a 2% fall;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will pertain to August; in the recent report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 507,000; current estimates are for a gain to an annual rate of 516,000;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 18th;

22:00 – FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: She is also expected to speak at the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst; the title of her speech is “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy”;

Friday, September 25th

08:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks: He will give a talk at the Young Factor Conference, in Florence;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2015. In the July report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%; M1 increased to 12.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to households grew to 1.9%; current estimates are for another modest gain in the growth rate of M3 to 5.4%;

13:30 – Third U.S GDP 2Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 3.7% — higher than anticipated. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to remain at 3.7%. A better than expected growth rate could bring back up equities and commodities;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index slipped again to 91.9;

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