Financial Market Outlook for September 26-30

The FOMC didn’t raise rates but the odds are still high for a December rate hike. And this week the Chair of the FOMC will be in the spotlight again as she will speak; in fact, no fewer than five FOMC officials will give public talks this week including Vice Chairman Fischer and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bullard. Moreover, other head of central banks will talk this week such as ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda. But public speeches by central bankers aren’t the only major events of the week. This week we also have the first U.S. Presidential debate and OPEC’s unofficial meeting in Algiers. Other reports and events that will unfold this week include: U.S. GDP for Q2, EU flash CPI, German business climate, U.S. core durable goods, China’s manufacturing PMI, German retail sales, U.S. news home sales, EU monetary development, and U.S. consumer confidence. So here’s a breakdown of the main events for the week of September 26th to 30th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 26th

Tentative – BOJ Governor Kuroda talks: He is expected to speak at the meeting with business leaders, in Osaka;

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of September; In the August report, the business climate index declined to 106.2; currently, the market expects to edge up to 106.3;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to August; in the previous report (opens pdf file), sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 654,000; current estimates, however are for a fall in the upcoming report to an annual rate of 598,000;

16:05 – ECB President Draghi Testifies: Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament, in Brussels;

01:00 – First U.S. Presidential Debate.

Tuesday, September 27th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2016. In the previous report, the annual growth rate for M3 decreased to 4.8%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to inch up to 4.9% rate;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the latest report for August, consumer confidence index bounced back to 101.1. The current estimates are that the index moderately decline to 98.6;

Wednesday, September 28th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to August and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of July  2016, core durable goods rose by 1.5%, month over month; in the next report, core durable goods are expected to decrease by 0.5%;

15:00 – Fed Chair Yellen Testifies: Chair Yellen will testify on supervision and regulation before the Committee on Financial Services, in Washington DC;

15:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Mario Draghi will speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 23rd;

Thursday, September 29th

13:30 – Third Estimate of U.S GDP for 2Q 2016: This will be the final estimate of U.S’s Q2 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 1.1%, which was slightly higher than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to edge up to 1.3%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 23rd; in the last report, jobless claims slipped to 252K; in the next report, estimates are for 260K claims;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 23rd;

19:00 – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks: Chair Yellen will speak at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City, via satellite;

Friday, September 30th

02:45 – China’s Caixin  Manufacturing PMI: This report is one of the main reports coming out of China mainly because it’s not conducted by China’s government; last month the PMI declined to 50, and in the upcoming report the PMI is expected to edge up to 50.1 – which means the PMI is still growing albeit at a very slow pace;

07:00 – German Retail Sales: Retail sales increased by 1.7% in the past update and is estimated to decline by 0.2% in the upcoming monthly report;

09:30 – GB’s GDP for 2Q: In the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.4% and is expected to pick up to 0.6% in the upcoming report;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. Based on the previous estimate for August, the annual CPI inched up to 0.2% and core CPI slipped to 0.8%. The market estimates the CPI were to rise to 0.4%;  

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for July 2016. In the previous update regarding June 2016, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.6%;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the development in the U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to inch up by 0.2%;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 89.8;

02:00 – China’s Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI rose to 50.4; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 50.5;

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