Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 9-13

Several commodities continued their general upward trend: Last week, leading commodities including oil and silver rose again. Conversely, some other commodities such as gold and natural gas changed direction and fell. In the forex market, leading currencies including Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar sharply appreciated against the US dollar during the previous week. Looking forward, will the US dollar continue to depreciate? Will leading commodities keep rising? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S retail sales, Japan’s GDP for the second quarter, U.S core PPI, China’s new loans, U.S consumer sentiment, GB employment situation, EU industrial production, OPEC and IEA monthly oil reports, China’s trade balance, EU Summits, U.S federal budget update, German bond auction, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of September 9th to September 13th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, and Great Britain. 

(All times GMT): 

Monday, September 8th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly update will refer to the changes in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the path of the Japanese Yen;

00:50 –Japan Second Quarter GDP 2013 (final): In the first quarter of 2013, Japan’s GDP grew by 0.9% (q-over-q). Moreover, for the first estimate of the second quarter, the GDP expanded by 0.6% (q-over-q) and by 2.6% in annual terms. If the growth rate will be revised upward, this may positively affect commodities prices;

Tentative – China’s CPI: during May, the Chinese inflation rate remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.7%, which is still lower than China’s target inflation. The lower than targeted inflation is another indication for China’s slowdown. If the inflation starts to pick up, however, this may indicate China’s economy may start rising;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: Based on the latest monthly report, China’s trade balance fell to a $17.8 billion surplus; if the surplus further falls, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may adversely affect commodities;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent developments in China’s new loans. Based on the recent report, the total loans changed direction and decreased; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

Tuesday, September 10th

00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan didn’t change it monetary policy. The minutes may offer insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

06:30 –China’s Industrial Production: According to the previous month’s report, China production growth rate rallied to 9.7% in yearly terms; if the growth rate will further rise it suggest China’s economy is progressing faster;

08:45 – French Industrial Production: This upcoming update will refer to figures during August. In the previous update, the industrial production declined again by 1.4% in July;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for August 2013; this update will also pertain to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during the previous month; this news may affect oil prices;

Wednesday, September 11th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous month, the number of unemployed in GB had fallen by 29.2k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.8%;

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: The German government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last bond auction, which was held during mid-August, the average rate reached 1.80% – the highest rate this year;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will also issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held at the first week of August, the average rate reached 2.62%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 6th;

Thursday, September 12th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: in the recent report regarding July 2013 the rate of unemployment remained at 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly decreased by 10,200 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for August analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;

10:00 – EU Industrial Production: This next report will refer to Augusts’ figures. In the latest update, the industrial production rose by 0.7% during July;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 6th; in the last report the jobless claims fell by 9k to reach 323k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of August) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of September 6th;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This forthcoming report will pertain to August 2013; this report suggests the government debt growth and thus may affect the changes in U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding June the deficit rose by $97.6 billion; if the deficit will continue to expand, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about next year’s budget reductions;

Friday, September 13th

All Day – Euro-Group Summits: In this summit, the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President will convene in Brussels;

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will focus on the economic changes in EU;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report presents the developments in retail sales and food services for August; in the previous report regarding July, the retail sales inched up by 0.2% from the last month; gasoline stations sales rose by 0.9% in July compared to June 2013; this report could signal the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report, referring to the inflation rate from the producers’ side, will refer to August 2013. In the previous report regarding July, this index for finished goods remained unchanged compared with June’s level and the core PPI inched up by 0.2%; this news might affect commodities prices;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will come out with its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information regarding the latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last update, the sentiment index fell to 80.0;

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