Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 13-17

During last week there weren’t many changes in the Forex and commodities markets: the Euro/USD declined while major commodities such as gold oil and silver rose. Will this direction change during this upcoming week?  There are several important publications and reports that may affect the financial markets including: U.S Philly fed index, Euro Area GDP for Q2 2012, U.S PPI, minutes of BOJ monetary policy, U.S housing starts, Canada and America’s CPI, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for August 13th to August 17th regarding the U.S., EU, Japan, GB and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 13th

00:50 –Minutes of the recent Japanese monetary policy meeting: Following last week’s BOJ monetary policy meeting – the Bank members decided to keep the policy unchanged and the interest rate remained at 0 to 0.1 percent – the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of the recent meeting. If the minutes will reveal any hints for the future steps of BOJ it may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;

Tuesday, August 14th

09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will refer to the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index as of July 2012; some expect the July inflation will further decline; in the recent report regarding June the annual CPI decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%; this news may affect the British pound;

10:00– Euro Area GDP 2Q2012 Report: Germany France and Italy will also publish during the day their preliminary second quarter GDP report for 2012. This report will show the changes in the economic growth in these countries; Euro Stat will also publish the GDP growth rate of the Euro Area. According to the previous report, during the first quarter of 2012, the Euro Area GDP didn’t grow (Q-o-Q). This news might affect the Euro; the current expectations are of another a low growth rate or even another contraction for the second quarter;

10:00 –German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. During July the ZEW indicator for Germany rose by 1.7 points to -19.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will continue to dwindle, the Euro will plausibly remain weak against other currencies;

10:00 –Euro Area ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Euro Area for August 2012. For July 2012 the ZEW indicator for Euro Area fell to -22.3;

10:00– Euro Area Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the industrial production of the EU during June; in the previous report the EU industrial production was up by 0.6% (M-O-M) during May;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services for July 2012; in the recent report regarding June, the retail sales declined by 0.5% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales decreased by 1.8% in June compared to May; this report could signal the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect crude oil prices;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during July 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the recent report regarding June this index for finished goods edged up by 0.1% compared with May’s rate and increased by 0.7% in the last 12 months; this news might affect gold and silver prices;

Wednesday, August 15th

09:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes: in the recent MPC meeting it was announced the rate will remain flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase program will remain at £375 billion; the MPC still has concerns about inflation. The minutes of the recent meeting might offer some insight behind this decision;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for July 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during June, the core CPI rose by 0.2%(M-o-M) and the index increased over the last 12 months by 2.2%; the CPI remained unchanged last month;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in June 2012. In the previous report regarding May 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached $55 billion;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 10th; in the recent weekly update for August 3rd, stockpiles slipped by 1 million bl to 1,800 million bl;

Thursday, August 16th

09:30 –Retails Sales GB (July 2012): This report examines the shifts in the retails sales in Great Britain during July 2012. It may affect the direction of the British Pound exchange rate. In the previous report regarding June 2012, retails sales edged up by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: the U.S Census Bureau will publish the U.S housing starts update for July 2012; this report was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts increased, gold prices tended to fall the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the previous report, the adjusted annual rate reached 760,000 in June 2012, which was 6.9% above May’s  rate;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The latest report building permits declined by 3.7% (M-o-M) in the adjusted annual rate of building permits and reached 755,000 in June 2012. If this report will continue to decline in the building permits rate, it may indicate that the U.S housing market (from this aspect) is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits and housing starts review);

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will pertain to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 10th; in the recent update the jobless claims fell by 6k to 361,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey presents an estimate for the changes of the US economy; it measures the manufacturing conditions. In the previous July survey, the growth rate rose from -16.6  in June to -12.9 in July 2012. If the index will remain negative it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also American stock indexes, and commodities prices (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 10th; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage rose by 24 Bcf to 3,241 Bcf;

Friday August 17th

13:00 – Canada’s Core CPI: This report will refer to the core consumer price index for July 2012 and controlling the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the Canadian CPI report for June 2012, the CPI rose by 1.5% during the past 12 month up to June – this is a slightly higher rate than in May. This report might affect the Canadian dollar, which is also strongly linked with commodities prices;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment survey; this report could offer another perceptive to recent changes in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index fell to 72;

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