Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 27-31

During last week, the prices of precious metals resumed their rally following the renewed hopes that the FOMC will stimulate the U.S economy in the near future.  The Euro also traded up against the USD. On the other hand other commodities prices such as crude oil didn’t move much. Will gold silver and Euro continue to rally during the upcoming week?  There are several important speeches and reports that may affect the financial markets such as: Bernanke’s speech, pending home sales, U.S consumer confidence report, Italian bond auction, U.S GDP for Q2, China’s manufacturing PMI, Canada’s GDP, ECB President Speech and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for August 27th to August 31st regarding the U.S., China, Australia, EU, Switzerland and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 27th

09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey analyzes the changes (on a monthly basis) of the business climate of Germany. In the recent report for  July 2012, the business climate index declined from 105.3 in June to 103.3 in July; if this trend will continue, it might adversely affect the Euro;

17:15 – FOMC member Pianalto Speaks: The President of Federal Reserve of Cleveland will give a speech about economic forecast and monetary policy;    

Tuesday, August 28th

07:00 – German Consumer Climate: Gfk group will publish their German consumer climate index. If this report will remain positive it might also have a positive effect on the Euro;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the progress of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during July 2012. In the previous June report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 3.2%; M1 also increased to 3.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector declined to -0.2%. This news may affect the Euro/USD and consequently commodities rates;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: according to the recent monthly update, the consumer confidence index rose in July (M-o-M). The current expectations are that the upcoming index may rise again; this report might affect commodities markets including the natural gas market;

Wednesday, August 29th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report provide an outlook of the Swiss economy in the months to come. In the previous press release, the report predicted that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012;

13:30 – Second U.S GDP 2Q 2012 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2012 real GDP growth and preliminary estimate of corporate profits. In the preliminary estimate, the U.S GDP during the second quarter expanded by 1.5%; in the 1Q2012 the GDP growth rate reached 2% (annual rate). This shows a fall in the growth rate for the US’s GDP. If there will be a sharp shift in the growth rate from first to second estimate, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices. This could also influence FOMC members in anticipation for next month’s FOMC meeting;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report refers to the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S. for July 2012; in the recent report the pending home sales index declined by 1.4% (M-over-M). These data are another indicator for the changes in America’s real estate market; based on last week’s results on housing sales (existing) the pending sales may continue to decline. In such a case US dollar may further weakened;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 24th; in the recent weekly update for August 17th, stockpiles decreased by 3 million bl to 1,792 million bl;

Thursday, August 30th

All Day – Jackson Hole Symposium: This will be a two day Symposium run by the Federal Reserve of Kansas to be held in Jackson Hole Wyoming. The Symposium will be about the U.S monetary policy. In this Symposium the highlight will be when Chairman of the Fed Bernanke will give a speech on Friday about the bank’s monetary policy;

Tentative – Italian 30 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue tis first bond auction for August; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the end of July, the average yield reached 5.96%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will pertain to the weekly shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 24th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 4k to 372,000; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 24th; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage rose by 47 Bcf to 3,308 Bcf;

Friday, August 31st

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will analyze the changes in German retail sales during August. In July 2012, retail sales declined by 0.1%; if this report will remain negative then it might weaken the Euro;

10:00 – Euro Area Flash Estimate of Annual Inflation: the inflation in Euro Area remained unchanged at 2.4% during July. If the upcoming inflation rate estimate will rise, it may lower the chances of ECB cutting its interest rate in the near future;

10:00 – Euro Area unemployment rate: the rate of unemployment of the Euro Area reached 11.2% in June. This mean there wasn’t any significant shift in the unemployment. If in the upcoming report there will be a sharp change in unemployment, it could affect the Euro;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: the report will refer to the changes in major industrial sectors for June 2012. In the previous report regarding May 2012, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.1%. This report may affect the strength of the Canadian dollar currency which is strongly correlated with commodities rates;

15:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Following last week’s publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting and the renewed expectations for another FOMC monetary intervention, many will look towards Bernanke’s speech that could hint of the Fed’s future steps.  The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk before the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The title of the speech is “Monetary Policy Since the Crisis“;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will pertain to the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during July; in the previous report factory orders declined by 0.5%; this report will offer some insight to the growth of the U.S economy and could affect the path of the U.S dollar;

Saturday, September 1st

2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: according to the recent Manufacturing PMI report regarding July 2012 the Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.1; this index indicates the developments in China’s manufacturing sectors; if this downward trend will continue, this may adversely affect commodities prices;

17:25 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following ECB’s decision to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will speak; there are expectations that the ECB will launch its bond purchase program in the near future; if Draghi will refer to this issue or the ECB future interest rate decision, it could affect the Euro and commodities rates.

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