Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for February 11-15

Major commodities prices including oil, gold and silver didn’t do much last week; major currencies pairs including the Euro/USD and Aussie dollar/USD fell last week. The remarks given by ECB President Mario Draghi resulted in the Euro’s tumble by the end of the week.  Next week several reports, speeches and summits may affect the financial markets. These include: ECONFIN Meetings, BOJ monetary policy meeting, U.S consumer sentiment, BOC’s governor will give a speech, U.S retail sales, Euro Area GDP for Q4, U.S federal budget balance, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for the week of February 11th to February 15th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Japan, Canada, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 11th

All Day – EU Economic Summit: This summit will comprise of EU ministers of finance and that will meet in Brussels. In this summit the EU ministers are likely to talk over the EU budget, the progress of the EU economy and the future steps needed to take in order to recover the EU economy; if the EU minters will reach any important resolutions, this could influence euro traders;

Tuesday, February 12th

08:15 – Swiss Inflation: this report will show to the monthly changes in the Swiss consumer price index as of January 2013; in the recent report regarding December the CPI declined by 0.2%;

09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will refer to the GB’s consumer price index as of January; in the previous monthly update, the annual CPI remained stable at 2.7%; if this the inflation will grow, it could lower the odds of the MPC augmenting its asset purchase program next month; this news might also affect the British pound;

All Day – ECONFIN Meetings: EU ministers of finance and EU leading policymakers will convene for the monthly meeting. In this meeting the EU ministers will likely discuss the recent multi-year EU budget decision and future development of the EU economy;

Tentative – BOE Inflation letter: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s inflation based on the estimate of Bank of England; the bank will publish the letter only if the inflation is exceed 3% or will be below 1%;

10:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: the Swiss National Bank Chairman will speak in a press conference; if he will announce or imply of any shifts to the monetary policy of the SNB it could affect the Swiss Franc;

13:45 – BOC Gov Carney Testifies: Bank of Canada’s governor Carney will testify before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. If he will refer to any potential changes in the bank’s monetary policy, this could affect the Canadian dollar;

15:30 – ECB President Speaks: Following last week’s press conference, in which Draghi referred to the strength of the Euro, the slow recovery of he EU economy and the expected fall in the inflation during the year, the market will see if  Draghi will compensate and be optimistic regarding the future of the EU economy. His remarks might affect the euro/usd exchange rates;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming report will present the developments in the U.S federal balance for January 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the latest report regarding December the deficit remained virtually unchanged’ the total deficit for the fiscal year of 2013 is at $293 billion. In comparison, the deficit in the same time in 2012 was $321 billion; this is decrease of 9.7% compared to 2012;

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly report will show the developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of January; the report will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries last month; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous report);

Wednesday, February 13th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will present the monthly developments in the industrial production as of January; as of December, the production declined by 0.3%; this report may affect the euro/usd;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will come up with another bond auction; in the latest bond auction, which was held at the last week of January, the average rate reached 4.17% – the lowest rate in recent months; if the rate will continue to decline, it could suggest that the EU is regaining the confidence of traders;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly update will present an updated (as of January) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;

10:30 –Governor King speaks: Bank of England’s Governor will give a speech regarding England’s inflation and employment conditions; he may also offer some insight regarding the recent MPC monetary policy meeting, in which the MPC kept the policy unchanged; this speech may influence British Pound traders;

Tentative – BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will publish its quarterly update of its estimate for the economic growth and inflation for the next couple of years;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services for January; in the recent report regarding December, the retail sales increased by 0.5% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales declined by 1.6% in December compared to November; this report could signal the shifts in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 9th; in the latest update for February 2nd, stockpiles slightly rose by 0.4 ml bl to reach 1,799.1 ml bl.

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the second week of January, the average rate was 1.86% – the highest rate in recent months; if the rate will continue to rise, it could suggest that more traders become more bullish;

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate and monetary policy for February. BOJ raised the inflation target from 1% to 2% and committed to an asset purchase program with no limit in 2013. The current monetary easing is at over 100 trillion yen.  In the previous meeting, BOJ kept the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. The steps taken by Prime Minster Shinzo Abe to jump start the Japanese economy, might further weaken the yen; if BOJ will continue to expand its monetary policy, this could further drag down the yen;

Thursday, February 14th

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for January examines the economic developments of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this report might provide some insight behind the updated expectations of the EU growth;

10:00 – EU GDP for Q4 2012: according to the previous quarterly update the annual GDP contracted by 0.1% as of the third quarter. This flash estimate will refer to the fourth quarter of 2012. If the EU economy will continue to shrink, this may also weaken the euro currency;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly update will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 9th; in the previous report the jobless claims fell by 5k to reach 366k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 9th; in latest weekly report, natural gas storage declined by 118 Bcf to 2,684 Bcf;

Friday, February 15th

09:30 –Retails Sales GB (January 2013): This report will show the changes in the retails sales in Great Britain for January 2013. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the recent report regarding December 2012, retails sales edged down by 0.1%;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for December 2012. In the recent report regarding November 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes rose by $52.3 billion;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment update; this survey could offer an insight to recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the previous update, the sentiment index declined again to 71.3;

All Day – G20 Meeting: the G20 will convene for two days in order to talk over the recent economic developments in the world;

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