Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for July 23-27

During the week the Euro continued to tumble down while major commodities rates such as oil and natural gas resumed their rally. Will this trend continue this upcoming week? ECB President says there is no need to worry about the depreciation of the Euro. For now this sentiment doesn’t seem to coincide with many Euro traders. There are several important publications and reports that may affect the financial markets this week including: U.S GDP for Q2 2012, pending and new home sales, Euro monetary supply , Bernanke’s speech, Governor Stevens speaks, U.S core durable goods and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for July 23rd to July 27th regarding the U.S., EU, Japan, China, Australia, GB and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 23rd

00:00 – FOMC member Raskin speaks: This will be another speech by an FOMC member. In anticipation for next week’s FOMC meeting, this speech could offer some insight about the perceptive of an FOMC member. Nonetheless I suspect this speech (most likely) won’t affect the markets. The title of the speech is “Community Banking”;    

3:30– China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI update for June 2012 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.1; this index indicates the economic progress of China’s manufacturing sectors; if this negative growth will continue, this may also adversely affect commodities prices, unless China will act to stimulate its economy;

4:05 –Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks: Following the recent rate cuts, Governor Stevens of Bank of Australia will give a speech at the Anika Foundation Luncheon;

Tuesday, July 24th

09:00 – Flash Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (July 2012): In the previous report regarding June 2012, the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI edge down to 44.8, i.e another contraction. This report will provide an indicator to the economic progress of the Euro zone’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn might affect the Euro/USD exchange rate and consequently also major commodities prices;

13:30 –Retails Sales Canada (May 2012): This report will refer to the changes in the retails sales in Canada during May 2012. It may affect the path of USD/CAD exchange rate, which is strongly linked with commodities prices. In the previous report regarding April 2012, retails sales declined by 0.5%;

13:45 – Bernanke’s Speech: Following last week’s testimonies of Bernanke at the Hill and the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting, the bullion market continue to dwindle because none of these news items offer any hints as the next move of the FOMC. Therefore this speech will most likely not affect the markets. Most likely…The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk before the At the Children’s Defense Fund National Conference. The title of the speech is “Early Childhood Education“;    

14:00 – U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to the monthly changes in the manufacturing sector on a national level during July 2012. During June 2012 the ISM index declined to 49.7%, which means the manufacturing is contracting; this index might affect forex, crude oil and natural gas markets;

00:50 – Japanese Trade balance: The Japanese trade balance deficit for May 2012 rose by 28.4% compared to April, and reach 657 billion YEN (roughly $8.31 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This fall is due to the rise in imports by 1.9%, and the decline in exports by 0.5%. Japan is among the leading importing countries of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could provide some information about Japan’s changes in demand goods and services;

Wednesday, July 25th

09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey examines the changes (on a monthly basis) of the business climate of Germany. In the recent report for  July 2012, the business climate index declined from 106.9 in May to 105.3 in June; if this trend will continue, it might further pull down the Euro;

09:30 – Flash GB GDP Q2 2012: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy during the second quarter of 2012; during the previous quarter the GB economy contracted by 0.2% (Q-2-Q);

Tentative – German 30 Year Bond Auction: the German government will issue a bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the end of April, the average yield reached 2.41%;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the developments in new home sales June 2012; in the recent monthly report (regarding May 2012), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 369,000 – a 7.6% increase (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to rally, it may further indicate a sign of recovery in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the US dollar.

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 20th; in the recent weekly update for July 13th, stockpiles increased by 1.4 million bl to 1,798 million bl;

Thursday, July 26th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will present the progress of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during June 2012. In the previous May report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 2.9%; M1 also hiked to 3.3%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector declined to -0.1%. The recent ECB rate cut may affect these figures; this news may also affect the Euro/USD and consequently commodities rates;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will refer to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 20th; in the latest update the jobless claims rose by 34k to 386,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will show the changes in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector during June 2012. This report may indirectly present the changes in U.S. demand for commodities including crude oil. As of May 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by $2.7 billion to $217.4 billion; if this report will continue to be positive then it could strengthen the US dollar and also affect gold oil and silver prices;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report show the changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for June 2012; in the latest report the pending home sales index rose by 5.9% (M-over-M). These data are another indicator for the development in America’s real estate market; based on last week’s results on housing sales (existing) the pending sales may change direction and decline. In such a case US dollar may further weakened;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of July 20th; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage rose by only 28 Bcf to 3,163 Bcf;

Friday July 27th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report offers an outlook of the Swiss economy in the months to come. In the previous press release, the report predicted that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion in 2012;

13:30 – First U.S GDP 2Q 2012 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2012 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP during the first quarter expanded by 1.9%; in the 4Q2011 the GDP growth rate reached 3% (annual rate). This shows a decrease in the growth rate for the US’s GDP. If there will be a sharp shift in the growth rate from Q1 to Q2 this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices. This could also influence FOMC members in anticipation for next week’s FOMC meeting.

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