Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for July 9-13

Following the recent ECB rate cut by 25pp to 0.75%- its lowest rate and the disappointing U.S non-farm payroll report major commodities prices including oil, natural gas and gold declined during the second half of last week. Will this downward trend continue during the upcoming week? There are several important publications and events that may affect the financial markets next week including: U.S, China and Canada’s trade balance,, minutes of the recent FOCM meeting, China’s GDP for Q2 2012,  Japan’s rate decision, GB, German and American bond auctions, Australia’s employment report, Great Britain manufacturing production and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar forecast for July 9th to July 13th referring to the U.S., EU, Canada, China, Japan Australia and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 9th

13:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the ECB’s rate cut by 0.25 percent point to 0.75%, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will speak; his speech may include the recent events in Europe and the ECB’s monetary policy;

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: this quarterly report provides an analysis of Canada’s businesses and offers some insight of what is up ahead for Canada;

Tuesday, July 10th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will show the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for May; in the last report regarding April the index fell by 0.7% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

All Day – European Council Meeting: The European Council Meeting will be held in Brussels and the EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent political and monetary developments in Europe;

Tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the recent report, China’s trade balance declined  to a $18.7 billion surplus; if the surplus will remain high, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is progressing and thus may positively affect prices of commodities;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will present the recent changes in China’s new loans given during the previous month. According to the recent report, the total loans rose mainly after the BOC decided to lower the interest rate and ease the restrictions on new loans; the rate cut of BOC might continue raising the number of loans taken in the upcoming months;

Wednesday, July 11th

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding April 2012, exports decreased by 1.2%, and imports edged up by 0.1%; as a result, the trade balance fell from a $152 million surplus to $367 million deficit; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with price of gold and crude oil;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for May 2012 will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as oil, natural gas and gold; according to the recent American trade balance report regarding April 2012 the goods and services deficit decreased during the month to $50.1 billion.

Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will issue another bond auction; in the latent bond auction, which was held at the middle of June, the rate reached 1.52%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 29th; in the recent weekly report for July 30th, stockpiles declined by 4 million bl to 1,794 million bl;

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the second week of June, the rate reached 1.62%;

19:00 – Minutes of June’s FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to extend operation twist throughout the rest of 2012, the market reacted to this news as gold and silver prices tumbled down. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might offer some insight behind this decision regarding the future steps of the FOMC especially in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of the month;

2:30 – Australia Rate of Unemployment: in the previous report regarding May 2012 the rate of unemployment edged up to 5.1%; the number of employed rose by 38,900 people; the number of unemployed increased by 22,400 during May compared with April‘s numbers. If this trend ill continue to could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);


Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also present the changes in the production of OPEC countries during June 2012; this news may affect t oil prices (See here a summary of the last June report);

Tentative – Bank of Japan – Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: Bank of Japan will decide its interest rate and monetary policy for the July. Up to now, BOJ left the interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1 percent. If the BOJ will introduce a new monetary stimulus plan, it might affect the Yen, other exchange rates and commodities prices;

Thursday, July 12th

9:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for June 2012 analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area including price stability, interest rate decisions and government’s debt; this report might provide some insight into the updated expectations of the Euro Area growth;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this update will pertain to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 6th; in the latest report the jobless claims declined by 14k to 374,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities rates;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and price as of July 6th; in the previous report, natural gas storage rose by 57 Bcf to 3,063 Bcf;

Tentative – Great Britain 10 Year Bond Auction: the British government will issue another bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held at the end of June, the rate reached 1.92%;

18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Mario Draghi will give another speech at the Euro-system Seminar with Mediterranean Countries’ Central Banks, in Casablanca;


Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: this upcoming report will show an updated (as of June) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013 (See here a summary of the recent report);

03:00 –China Second Quarter GDP 2012: during the first quarter of 2012, China grew by only 8.1% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the GDP in Q2 2012 grew by only 7.5%; if the growth rate will be lower than in the previous quarter it might adversely affect commodities prices;

Friday July 13th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the progress in the PPI during June 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the recent report regarding May this index for finished goods fell by 1% compared with April’s rate and rose by 0.7% in the last 12 months; this news might affect gold and silver prices;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment survey; this report could offer another perceptive to recent changes in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index fell to 74.1;

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