Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for March 11-15

The prices of major commodities including natural gas, crude oil gold and silver changed course and rallied on a weekly scale; major currencies pairs including the Euro and Canadian dollar  slightly depreciated against the USD during last week. Will commodities changes course and fall next week? In the upcoming week several reports, summits and announcements may affect the financial markets. These include: U.S CPI and PPI, Australia’s employment update, EU Economic Summit, U.S retail sales, China’s new loans, U.S consumer sentiment, Libor rate decision, U.S industrial production, Bank of Japan monetary policy minutes, OPEC monthly report, U.S Federal budget, Great Britain manufacturing production, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of March 11th to March 15th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 11th

08:45 – French Industrial Production: The upcoming report will refer to February 2013. In the previous update, the industrial production inched down by 0.1% during January;

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the recent update, the total loans changed direction and rose; this report is another indicator to the economic progress of China;

23:50 – Bank of Japan –Monetary Policy Minutes: Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting and rate decision. In the rennet meeting, BOJ decided to leave its asset purchase program unchanged. The minutes could offer some insight behind the recent decision and could affect the Yen, other currencies and commodities;

Tuesday, March 12th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will show the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for January; in the previous report regarding December the index changed course and rose by 1.6% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

09:30 – Great Britain Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly update  the trade balance deficit declined to 8.9 billion pound;

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly report will present the developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide as of February; the report will also pertain to the changes in the production of OPEC countries last month; this news may affect oil prices (See here a summary of the previous report);

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming report will refer to February 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding January the deficit remained virtually unchanged; the total deficit for the fiscal year of 2013 reached $290 billion. In comparison, the deficit in the same time in 2012 was $348.8 billion; this is decrease of 16.8% compared to 2012;

Wednesday, March 13th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will show the monthly developments in the industrial production as of February; as of January, the production rose by 0.7%; this report may affect the euro/usd;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will present the monthly shifts in the retail sales and food services for February; in the recent report regarding January, the retail sales edged up by 0.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales rose by 1.4% in January compared to December; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect oil rates;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly update will show an updated (as of January) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue its monthly with bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the last week of February, the average rate reached 4.83% – the highest rate in the past several months;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue its monthly with bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held at the middle of February, the average rate reached 2.05% – the highest rate in the recent months;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 8th; in the recent update for March 1st, stockpiles decreased again by 2.42 ml bl to reach 1,782.3 ml bl.

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the last report regarding January 2013 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.4%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 10,400 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, March 14th

09:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: the Swiss National Bank will decide its Libor rate; this decision could affect not only foreign exchange markets but also commodities markets if the central bank will decide to change its Libor rate;

All Day (two days Summit) – EU Economic Summit: In this summit, the EU ministers of finance will present a plan for budget austerity. They will convene in Brussels. In this summit the EU ministers are likely to go over the issue of how the ECB should oversight the EU banks;

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for February examines the economic changes of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this report may provide additional insight behind the updated expectations of the EU growth;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 8th; in the latest report the jobless claims slightly declined by 7k to reach 347k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the direction of U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the developments in the PPI during February 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding January, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2% compared with December’s rate but rose by 1.4% in the past 12 months; this news might affect  the direction of commodities rates;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 8th; in recent weekly report, natural gas storage declined by 146 Bcf to 2,083 Bcf;

Friday, March 15th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: according to the previous update the annual CPI slipped to 2.0%, which is at the ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will continue to fall, it could raise the odds of ECB cutting its cash rate in the near future;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for February 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during January, the CPI remained flat (M-o-M); the core CPI rose by 0.3%; the core index rose over the past twelve months by 1.9%.

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for January 2013. In the recent report regarding December 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes increased by $64.2 billion;

14:15 – American Industrial Production: The upcoming report will refer to February 2013. In the previous monthly report, the index slipped by 0.1% during January; this news may affect the USD;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer an insight to recent changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the latest update, the sentiment index changed course and rose to 76.3;

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