Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 12-16

During last week, major commodities prices zigzagged with high volatility; this includes oil, silver and gold. The U.S Presidential elections are over. In the 2008 elections the prices of commodities also shifted with high volatility during the week of the elections. The elected President will need to resolve with Congress the “fiscal cliff” in the next couple of months. This situation is likely to fuel the volatility in the commodities and forex markets in the weeks to follow. The main events of the week will revolve around Bernanke’s speech, the minutes of the FOMC meeting, and Euro-group meeting. There are several other important publications, speeches and events that may affect the financial markets during the upcoming week. These include: Euro-group meeting, U.S PPI and CPI, GB CPI, minutes of recent FOMC meeting, Bernanke’s speech, Philly Fed survey, German ZEW economic sentiment, IEA monthly report, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar projection for November 12th to November 16th regarding the U.S, Great Britain and EU.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 12th

All Day – Euro-group Meeting: The Euro-group Meeting will be held in Brussels and the EU leaders will talk over the recent political and monetary developments in Europe; in the last meeting there was little headway and the market didn’t react to the news coming out of this meeting; the upcoming meeting is likely to refer to Greece’s next bailout package. There are some reports that Greece is getting closer in receiving the next package;

Tuesday, November 13th

All Day – European Council Meeting: In the European Council Meeting the EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent monetary developments in Europe; this could include Greece’s eligibility to receive the next bailout package;

09:30 – Great Britain CPI: this report will pertain to the yearly rate of GB’s consumer price index as of October 2012; some expect the inflation rate had further dwindled; in the recent report regarding September the annual CPI decreased from 2.5% to 2.2%; this news might affect the British pound;

10:00 –German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for November. For October the ZEW indicator for Germany rose by 6.7 points to -11.5 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment won’t present signs of improvement, the Euro will plausibly remain weak against other currencies including the USD;

Tentative – BOE Inflation Estimate: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s inflation according to Bank of England and will be published as a letter only if the inflation is above 3% or below 1%;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: this upcoming monthly report will offer an updated (as of October) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will show the changes in the U.S federal balance for October 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding September the deficit declined by $75 billion to a deficit of $1,089 billion for the fiscal year of 2012; this is a decrease of 16% compared to 2011;

Wednesday, November 14th

09:30 – Claimant Count Change: This report will show the changes in the number of unemployed in GB; as of last month’s report this figure had fell by 4k;

10:00– Euro Area Industrial Production: This report will present the shifts in the industrial production of the EU for September; in the recent report the EU industrial production rose again by 0.6% (M-O-M) during August;

10:30 –Governor King speaks: The governor of Bank of England will give a speech about the recent inflation report; he might also offer some refer to the recent MPC interest rate decision and monetary policy; this speech may influence British Pound traders;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the developments in the PPI during October 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the latest report regarding September this index for finished goods hiked again by 1.1% compared with August’s rate and by 2.1% in the last 12 months; this news might affect commodities prices;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly developments in the retail sales and food services for October 2012; in the recent report regarding September, the retail sales rose by 1.1% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales increased by 2.5% in September compared to August; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect crude oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly review on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 9th; in the latest weekly update for November 2nd, stockpiles rose by 0.7 ml bl to reach 1,793.9 ml bl;

19:00 – Minutes of October’s FOMC Meeting: Following the October FOMC meeting, in which the Fed kept its policy unchanged, the bullion market didn’t have a strong reaction to this news – gold and silver prices slightly declined on the day of the announcement. The minutes of the recent FOMC meeting might add some additional insight behind this non-decision and more important the potential future steps of the FOMC especially after the U.S Presidential elections, the upcoming decision to be made regarding the U.S fiscal cliff and the upcoming FOMC meeting at the middle of December;

Thursday, November 15th

09:30 –Retails Sales GB (October 2012): This report examines the developments in the retails sales in Great Britain during October 2012. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the recent report regarding September 2012, retails sales rose by 0.6%;

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: according to the previous report the annual CPI remained at 2.6%, which is slightly higher than ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will rise again, it could lower the odds of ECB cutting its cash rate in the near future;

13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will pertain to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for October 2012. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics during September, the CPI increased again by 0.6% (M-o-M); the core CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core index rose over the last 12 months by 2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will pertain to the weekly changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 9th; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 8k to  reach 363k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the rates of commodities;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey shows an estimate for the progress of the US manufacturing conditions. In the recent October survey, the growth rate rose from -2.3 in September to +5.7 in October. If the index will continue to rise it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also American stock indexes, and commodities prices (the previous Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 9th; in the previous weekly report, natural gas storage increased by only 21 Bcf to 3,929 Bcf;

18:20 – Bernanke’s Speech: Following the recent developments in the U.S including the conclusion of the U.S Presidential elections and in anticipation of the incumbent President and Congress to tackle the fiscal cliff by the end of the year,  many will look towards Bernanke’s speech that could hint of the Fed’s future monetary steps.  The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will talk at the HOPE Global Financial Dignity Summit, Atlanta, Georgia. The title of the speech is “Housing and Mortgage Markets“;

Friday, November 16th

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the shifts in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in September 2012. In the previous report regarding August 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached $90 billion;

14:15 –U.S. Industrial Production: this report will present the monthly developments in the industrial production for October 2012; in the recent report regarding September, the industrial production rose by 0.4% from the previous month and declined by 1.2% during August; this report could affect the strength of the USD;

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