Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 26-30

During last week, major commodities prices were traded mostly up; this includes commodities such as natural gas, oil, silver and gold. The high volatility in some commodities prices during last week might continue this forthcoming week. The main events of the week will revolve around another EU Summit and the delayed decision regarding Greece’s bailout decision, U.S GDP for Q3, U.S core durable goods and U.S GDP. There are several other publications, speeches and events that may affect the financial markets during this upcoming week. These include: Euro-group meeting, housing starts and building permits, U.S new and pending home sales, Governor King’s speech, EU monetary developments,, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S core durable goods , Italy’s bond sales, EU rate of unemployment ,U.S GDP for Q3, Canada’s GDP, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic news calendar outlook for November 26th to November 30th regarding the U.S, EU, Canada, China, Australia, and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 26th

All Day – Euro-group Summit: The Euro-group Meeting will convene again in Brussels as the EU leaders will decide on the Greek bailout. Following last week’s discussions, the EU ministers of finance didn’t reach an agreement about Greece’s next bailout package. Nonetheless, there are some reports that the EU ministers of finance, the ECB and IMF are closing the gaps among these parties’ standings.   If the EU will decide to approve this bailout, which many expect will eventually be approved, and then this may help rally the Euro;

Tuesday, November 27th

09:30 – GB revised GDP Q3 2012: This report will show the revised quarterly growth rate of the British economy during the third quarter of 2012; according to the preliminary estimate the third quarter expanded by 1% (yearly scale);

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector for October 2012. This report may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil. As of September 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined by $19.6 billion to $218.2 billion; if this report will show a rise in new orders then it could pull up not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: according to the previous monthly report, the consumer confidence index rose again in October (M-o-M). The current expectations are that the November index may change direction and slide down; this report might affect commodities markets including the oil and natural gas markets;


Wednesday, November 28th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the development of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area during October 2012. In the previous September report, the annual growth rate for M3 declined to 2.7%; M1 also slipped to 5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector contracted again to 0.8%. This news suggests the EU economy isn’t progressing; if this trend will continue it adversely affect the Euro/USD and consequently commodities prices;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to October 2012; in the previous report (for September), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 389,000 – a 5.7% gain (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to rally, it may indicate a sign of some recovery in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength and direction of the USD;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will be publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 23rd; in the previous weekly update for November 16th, stockpiles fell by 6.2 ml bl to reach 1,782.9 ml bl;

17:15 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: the Swiss National Bank Chairman will give a speech in a press conference; if he will announce or hint of any changes to the monetary policy of the SNB it could affect the Swiss Franc;

00:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the third quarter of 2012. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure rose by 3.4% (Q-o-Q) and by 27.4% compared to the previous quarter in 2011. if this upward trend continue, it may positively affect the Aussie dollar, which tend to be strongly linked with major commodities prices;

Thursday, November 29th

10:30 –Governor King speaks: The governor of Bank of England will give a speech about the recent inflation report; he might also offer some insight behind the recent MPC interest rate decision and monetary policy; this speech may affect the British Pound;

Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: the Italian government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous bond auction, which was held during the second week of November, the average rate reached 4.81% – the lowest rate in recent months;

13:30 – Second U.S GDP 3Q 2012 Estimate: This update will be the second estimate of U.S third quarter 2012 real GDP growth and preliminary estimate of corporate profits. In the preliminary estimate, the U.S GDP during the third quarter expanded by 2%; in the 2Q2012 the GDP growth rate reached only 1.3% (annual rate). This presents a modest rise in the growth rate for the US’s GDP. If there will be a sharp change in the growth rate from first to second estimate, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities rates. Moreover, if the GDP growth rate will rise, it could lower the chances of the FOMC intervening again the U.S financial markets;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will pertain to the weekly developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 23rd; in the previous report the jobless claims declined by 41k to reach 410k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report pertain to the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S. for October; in the previous report the pending home sales index rose by 0.3% (M-over-M). These data are another indicator for the developments in America’s housing market; based on last week’s results on housing market, the pending sales may rise again. In such a case, the U.S dollar may pull up;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 23rd; last week the natural gas storage report didn’t come out due to Thanksgiving holiday; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage fell by 18 Bcf to 3,911 Bcf;

Friday, November 30th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this report provides a projection to the Swiss economy in the months to come. According to the previous press release, the report predicted that the Swiss Economy is headed towards an expansion for the year;

08:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will show the changes in German retail sales during November. In October 2012, retail sales increased by 1.5% – higher than many had anticipated; if this report will rise again then it might strengthen the Euro;

10:00 – Euro Area unemployment rate: the rate of unemployment of the Euro Area rose again to 11.6% in September. This mean there is an ongoing slow growth in the unemployment. If in the upcoming report this trend will continue, it may adversely affect the Euro;

10:00 – Euro Area Flash Estimate of Annual Inflation: the inflation in Euro Area declined to 2.5% during October. If the upcoming inflation rate estimate will fall, it may raise the chances of ECB cutting its interest rate next week;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: the upcoming report will present the developments in major industrial sectors during September 2012. In the recent report regarding August 2012, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.1%. This report may affect the strength of the Canadian dollar currency which is strongly correlated with major commodities such as silver and crude oil;

13:30 – U.S Personal Spending: this monthly update refers to the shifts in income and outlays in the U.S during October; in the last report regarding September the personal income rose by 0.8%; disposable personal income also rose by 0.4%;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: According the recent report regarding October 2012 the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2; this means that China’s manufacturing sectors expanded at a slow pace; the recent flash manufacturing PMI increased to a 13 month high. If this upcoming report will also present an additional growth, it could signal a rise in China’s economy.  If the index will rise again, this may positively affect commodities prices;

For further reading: