Weekly outlook for April 11-15

Here is a weekly forecast for April 11th to 15th presenting the main news items and reports related to US, Canada and Europe, and scheduled events, such as the G7 and G20 meetings.

During the upcoming week, Trading Energy will continue to report and analyze the events from the Middle East and Japan that might relate to energy and precious metal’s prices such as crude oil price and gold prices.

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 12th of April – China New loans and M2 money supply: These two monthly reports will indicate the recent economic activity in China for the month of March, including the rising loans given by the banks. In the February report, loans given continue to rise, which is one of the reasons the People Bank of China decided last week to raise its interest rate to curb this rise. In the upcoming months if the growth rate of the loans given and M2 supply increase will not slow down, China might consider taking additional steps, such as raising interest rate again, to fight its growing inflation pressures;
  2. Tuesday 12th of April 13.30 –Canadian Trade balance: The upcoming Canadian statistics report on Canada’s trade balance will pertain to February 2011. In the previous report regarding January 2011, the merchandize imports rose by 5.3% compared to December 2010 – their highest level since November 2008, and Imports of energy products rose by 13.8% to 4.2 billion CAD – their highest level since October 2008; exports of industrial goods inclined by 3.8%, to 9.5 billion CAD, and exports of energy products increased by only 2.5% to 9.4 billion CAD, out of which petroleum exports rose by 5.8%. As a result, the trade surplus declined to 116$ million during January 2011, after it was at 1.7 billion surplus in December 2010;
  3. Tuesday 12th of April 13.30 – Report on American Trade balance: This monthly report will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the US, including major commodities such as crude oil for the month of February 2011; The American trade balance for January 2011 showed the goods deficit increased by 6.1$ billion, while the service surplus remained unchanged at 13.4$ billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit increased by $11.7 billion from January 2010 to January 2011;
  4. Wednesday 13th of April 15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will present its weekly report on the recent news related to U.S petroleum stocks and crude oil prices. In the previous report, petroleum stocks didn’t change much this week and remained at 1,768 million barrels. (see here my recent review on crude oil stocks);
  5. Thursday 14th of April 13.30 – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on April 2nd, initial claims declined by 10,000, to reach 382,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate still remained unchanged at 3.0% for the week ending on Mar 26th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.723 million, a decrease of 9,000 compare to the previous week’s number (see here my review on the recent US Labor report);
  6. Thursday 14th of April 15.30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the EIA will also issue a weekly report about the recent changes in natural gas storage, production and consumption in the US. In the recent EIA report natural gas storage decreased by 2.8%, i.e. a withdraw of 45 Bcf, as the total storage reached 1,579 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states; the natural gas storage is 10 Bcf above the 5-year average. (see here my previous natural gas storage review);
  7. Thursday 14th of April All day – Meeting of G7: This upcoming meeting of the G7 group which includes the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan will discuss the Japan disaster and its impact on the world economy in preparation for the G20 meeting the next day. G7 group will also likely to discuss the Euro debt crisis including the debt crisis of Portugal and to try and persuade China to let its Yuan currency to fluctuate more free and not to be pegged to the US dollar;
  8. Friday 15th of April All day – Meeting of G20: This meeting of the G20 will discuss similar issues as listed in the G7 meeting;
  9. Saturday 16th of April All day – Meeting of IMF and world Bank: As part of the meetings scheduled this week with the G7 and G20, the IMF and World Bank are to convene and talk about the issues listed above in the G7 and G20 meetings.


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