Weekly outlook for April 25-29

Following the short week, here is a weekly outlook for April 25th to 29th that highlights the main news items and reports related to US, Canada and Australia.

During the upcoming week, Trading Energy will continue to report and analyze the events from the Middle East, including the recent news form Syria, Libya and Yemen that might have an effect on the stability of the financial markets in general and the crude oil market in particular.

(all times GMT):

  1. Tuesday 26th of April 2.30 Australian CPI for first quarter 2011 : This will the changes in the consumer price index during the first quarter of 2011. Australia is among the major countries in exporting commodities such as crude oil and gold. During Q4 2010 the CPI rose by 0.4% compared to Q3 2010 (see here for previous report);
  2. Wednesday 27th of April 13.30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Durable Goods: This monthly report shows the changes in orders of durable goods in the US in the manufacturing sector. During February 2011, the Census showed a decline in manufactured durable goods by $1.9 billion or 0.9% to $200.0 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods increased by $1.7 billion or 2.5% to $69 billion (for the full report). This is one of the reports that shows that progress of the US economy and the changes in demand for commodities;
  3. Wednesday 27th of April 15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will present its weekly report on the recent news related to U.S Petroleum and oil stocks declined by 6.7 million barrels, which is a 0.38% drop compared to the previous week. For the week ending on April 15th the stocks reached 1,757.2 million barrels. This was the largest withdraw since February 18th, 2011. (see here my recent review on crude oil stocks);
  4. Thursday 28th of April 13.30 – Bureau of Economic Analysis – US first quarter advance GDP: This is an early estimate on the GDP growth rate of the US economy during the first quarter of 2011. During 4Q 2010 the annual growth rate reached an estimate of 3.1%; The early estimates are that this first quarter GDP growth rate might be disappointing and might be around the 2.0 -2.5% annual growth rate;
  5. Thursday 28th of April 13.30 – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on April 16th, initial claims decreased by 13,000, to reach 403,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged on 2.9% for the week ending on April 9th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.695 million, a decrease of 7,000 compared to the previous week’s number (see here my review on the recent US Labor report);
  6. Thursday 28th of April 15.30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the EIA will also issue a weekly report about the recent changes in natural gas storage, production and consumption in the US. In the recent EIA report natural gas storage increased for the second straight week by 2.9%,; this was a 47 Bcf injection, and the total storage reached 1,654 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states; the natural gas storage was 24 Bcf above the 5-year average (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  7. Friday 29th of April 09.00 – Monetary developments in the euro area: This monthly report is about M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area. This upcoming report will refer to March 2011. In the last report pertaining February, the annual growth rate for M3 inclined to 2.0%, from 1.5% annual rate in January 2011. Furthermore, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector inclined from 2.4% in January to 2.6% in February. These data show a rise in economic activity in the Euro Area that might influence investors’ perspective on the economic condition of the EURO zone (see here the last report);
  8. Friday 29th of April 13:30– Canada GDP by industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for February 2011. In the last report pertaining January 2011, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.5%, mainly due to rise in manufacturing by 2.8% during January; on the other hand, oil and gas extraction declined by 0.5% compared to previous month (for the full previous report);
  9. Friday 29th of April 17.30 – Ben Bernanke, Chairman of Fed, speaks: The Fed chairman will address in his upcoming speech about “Community Development in Challenging Times”. He may refer to the progress of the US economy and the stimulus plan that Fed is implementing. In his previous speech, Bernanke talked about the challenges the State and Local Government face in times of economic slowdown and how does the stimulus plan of the Federal Reserve affects the US economy (see here my analysis on the Fed’s policy).


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