The second week of 2011 is underway, here is a weekly outlook for the week of January 10th to 14th showing the news items and reports that will be published this coming week mainly related to the US, Australia and EURO economies; This outlook will provide some insight on how the prices of major commodities such as crude oil price, natural gas spot price and gold price could be affected from these reports. The reports include the following (all times GMT):
- Monday 9th of January tentative (postponed indefinitely) – Publishing the US Treasury Currency Report by the Department of Treasury: This report which is published twice a year provides information and analysis such as economic policies and economic conditions, on the US and major countries. Last time the report (July 2010) showed that the US is still on a high unemployment rate of 9.5%, however it did show an economic growth of an average 3.5% per quarter (annual basis), which was higher then the weighted-average of 2.4% of the other G7 countries. This report could provide insight into the economic growth and stability of major countries and thus inform us how their condition could affect commodities prices.(For the previous report check in this link);
- Monday 9th of January 12.30PM – Australian Bureau of Stat. will publish the trade balance report: This report shows the trade balance of Australia for the month of November. Australia is a key player in exporting major commodities such as coal, gold and crude oil. This report could present the changes in the supply of these commodities during the month of November to major economies such as China. In the last report pertaining the month of October, there was a rise in non-monetary gold export of 414m$ – a 36% increase compare to previous month. In total, there was a rise of 28m$, compare to September 2010, in the surplus in trade balance on goods and services, reaching 2,446m$. (For the previous report check in this link);
- Wednesday 12th of January 15.30PM – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will issue its weekly report on the US crude oil & petroleum related products (such as gasoline and propane), inventories and consumption of the passing week. These data show the main changes in demand and supply for crude oil in the U.S. and how these changes might affect crude oil price. Last week’s report showed a decline of 0.4% in crude oil stocks, which is a drop of over 6 million barrels of crude oil. As the winter progress we will probably continue seeing a decline in crude oil stocks(see here my previous review on crude oil stocks);
- Thursday 13th of January 13.30PM – Department of Labor report about US unemployment claims: The weekly report presents the unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data of last week’s unemployment claims. For the week ending on Jan 1st, the report showed an increase in initial claims of 18,000, settling on 409,000 claims; and the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged for the week ending on Dec 25th with a 3.3% rate; furthermore, the number of insured unemployment for the week of Dec 25th was 4.103 million, a decrease of 47,000 compare to the previous week. This is one of the indicators for the US economy’s condition; if the report this week will show an improvement in unemployment claims; this could indicate that the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery. Further, this indicator could also provide a signal for investors to reconsider investing in the US; consequentially, this might increase the value of the US dollar compare to major currencies and thus reduce the appeal of commodities such as gold and crude oil as an investment which could decrease their prices.
- Thursday 13th of January 15.30PM – EIA report about Natural gas storage: The EIA will also issue its weekly report on natural gas and the main changes in storage and consumption in the US. The EIA report showed that there is a rise in domestic consumption of over 7.5% compare to the previous week, mostly due to increase in demand for residential and industrial markets, due to the cold weather (see here my previous review on last week’s figures update). The Natural Gas Working Underground Storage showed a decrease of 4.2% compare to the previous week, reaching 3,097 (Billion Cubic Feet) for all lower 48 states;
- Friday 14th of January 10.00AM –Euro zone foreign trade balance: The release will be for November data regarding the Euro (27 countries) foreign trade balance. The previous report, pertaining October, showed that EU27 had a deficit of 7.4 bn euro, compare with 6.4 bn euros in October 2009; while EA16 showed a 5.4 bn euro surplus, compared with 4.8 bn euros surplus in October 2009. EU27 increased its deficit in energy goods from -172.8 bn euros in Jan-Sep 2009 to -214 in Jan-Sep 2010. This report shows the changes in demand for energy commodities in Europe, and thus Europe’s role in influencing the energy market in general and crude oil price in particular (see here the last report).
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