Weekly outlook for Crude oil, Natural gas and Gold 7-11 February

Here is a weekly outlook for the week of February 7th to 11th showing the news items and reports that will be published this coming week mainly related to the US, Canada and German economies.

In addition, to the reports that will be published this week, one of the main news that will continue affecting major commodities prices is the status in the Middle East, in particular, the turmoil in Egypt (see here for further elaborations).

This forecast shows how prices of major commodities such as crude oil price could be affected from the following reports (all times GMT):

  1. Wednesday 9th of February 7.30AM – German Trade Balance report: This monthly review regarding the German Trade Balance of goods and services will present the current figures for the month of December 2010; in the previous month, pertaining November 2010, the seasonally adjusted trade balance with other countries was 11.8 billion Euro which was  21.8% below the same month in 2009 and 17.1% below the previous month;
  2. Wednesday 9th of February 15.00PM – Chairman of Fed – Ben Bernanke testifies: The Fed chairman will address in his upcoming testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate on the economic outlook and monetary and fiscal policy. This includes, among other, the progress of QE2 (quantitative easing), i.e. the 600 billion USD stimulus plan which the Fed first announced back in November 2010. The Fed’s outlook on the US economy provides to some investors insight into the expectations of the US economy’s road to recovery (see here Ben Bernanke’s previous testimonial);
  3. Wednesday 9th of February 15.30PM – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will issue its weekly report on the main changes in demand (consumption and storage) and supply (production and imports) for crude oil in the U.S. and how these changes might affect crude oil price. Last week’s report showed a rise of 0.3% in petroleum stocks, an increase of nearly 5.5 million barrels of crude oil. Last week, the imports (mainly from Canada) and US production declined, while refineries input of crude oil increased, compare to previous week. This  rise in stocks is probably relate to the incline in refineries despite the rise in energy demand due to the cold weather (see here my previous review on crude oil stocks);
  4. Thursday 10th of February 13.30PM – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on Jan 29th, the report showed a decrease in initial claims of 42,000, settling on 415,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate fell to 3.1% rate for the week ending on Jan 22nd, a 0.1% points decrease; finally, the number of insured unemployment for the week of Jan 22nd was 3.925 million, a decrease of 84,000 compare to the previous week;
  5. Thursday 10th of February 15.30PM – EIA report about Natural gas storage: The EIA will also issue its weekly report on the main changes in natural gas storage and consumption in the US. The EIA report showed a rise in domestic consumption but a fall in prices compare to the previous week; the underground natural as storage decreased by 7.4% and reached 2,353 (Billion Cubic Feet) for all lower 48 states (see here my previous review on last week’s figures update);
  6. Thursday 10th of February 19.00PM – Report on American Federal budget balance: The Department treasury will examine the government’s balance between income and spending for the month of January 2011. During the December 2010, the budget deficit was 79$ billion, which is 12$ billion below during Dec2010; the total deficit during the 2010 fiscal year (Oct-Sep) was 1.3$ trillion; up to December 2010, for the 2011 fiscal year the current deficit was 370 billion, which is 17$ billion the parallel time in 2010 fiscal year;
  7. Friday 11th of December 13.30PM – Report on American Trade balance: The monthly report shows the main changes during the previous month in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the US, including major commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance showed for the month of November a decrease of 0.1 billion USD in its deficit balance of goods and services, down to 38.3 billion USD from 38.4 billion USD in October;
  8. Friday 11th of December 13.30PM – Report on Canadian Trade balance: According to the Canadian statistics recent report pertaining the figures during November 2010, the merchandize imports declined by 3.2% during November compare to October, mainly due to a 15.1% decline in energy products; exports, on the other hand, inclined by 0.8% to 34.3$ billion; resulting in the trade deficit declining to $81 million, compare to 1.5$ billion during October. Canada’s trade surplus with the United States inclined to $3 billion during November, from $1.7 billion in October.  The main reasons for the rise in export related to the precious metals sector, followed by the energy sector;

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