Weekly outlook for Crude oil, Natural gas and Gold 7-11 March

Here is a weekly outlook for the week of Match 7th to 11th showing the news items and reports that will be published this coming week mainly related to the US, Europe, Canada China and Australia economies. Mainly there will be publications regarding trade balance and employment updates.

The news besides these reports that could affect the commodities markets is the continuous turmoil in Libya (see here for further elaborations).

This forecast shows how prices of major commodities such as crude oil price might be affected from the following reports (all times GMT):


  1. Wednesday 9th of March Tentative – China’s foreign trade balance: This monthly report shows the main changes in trade balance for February 2011. In the previous report, as of January 2011, the country’s exports fell by 2.2% to reach 150.7 billion U.S. dollars while imports rose by 2.2% compare to the December 2010. As a result the balance fell to a surplus of 6.5 billion USD – the lowest level since April 2010;
  2. Wednesday 9th of March 15.30PM – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will issue its weekly report on the main changes in production storage, consumption and imports of petroleum in the U.S. and how these changes might have affected crude oil price. Last week’s report showed petroleum stocks, continued falling for the third straight week after rising for five weeks straight earlier; last week they have declined by 0.4%, a decrease of nearly 6.5 million barrels of crude oil to reach 1,777 million barrels. (see here my previous review on crude oil stocks);
  3. Wednesday 9th of March 12.30PM – Australian Bureau of Stat. will publish the unemployment rate: This monthly report presents the unemployment rate of Australia for the month of February. Australia is a key player in exporting major commodities such as coal, gold and crude oil. This report will present the changes in the Australian economy which is on the rise. In the last report pertaining the month of January, the unemployment remained unchanged on 5.1% as employment increased to 11.44 million people and unemployment decreased to 610 thousand. (For the previous report check in this link);
  4. Thursday 10th of March 7.30AM – German Trade Balance report: This monthly review regarding the German Trade Balance of goods and services will present the current figures for the month of January 2011; in the previous month, pertaining December 2010, the seasonally adjusted trade balance with other countries was 14 billion Euro which was  6.6% below the same month in 2009 and 17.3% above the previous month;
  5. Thursday 10th of March 13.30PM – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on Feb 26th, the report showed a decrease in initial claims of 20,000, settling on 368,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percent points to reach 3.0% for the week ending on Feb 19th; finally, the number of insured unemployment for the week of Feb 19th was 3.774 million, a decrease of 59,000 compare to the previous week. These figures show that it could be an improvement in the US economy;
  6. Thursday 10th of March 13.30PM – Report on American Trade balance: This report shows the main changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the US, including major commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance showed for the month of December an increase in exports and imports of goods and services, resulting in a rise in deficit of trade balance to 40.5 billion USD from 38.3 billion USD in November;
  7. Thursday 10th of March 13.30PM – Report on Canadian Trade balance: In the Canadian statistics report pertaining the figures during December 2010, the merchandize exports rose by 9.7% compare to November, mainly due to a rise in energy products volumes; imports , on the other hand, inclined by only 0.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of 3 billion dollars during December, after the trade balance was at a 115$ million deficit. As the energy prices continue to rise, it will probably continue to affect the trade balance to rise.;
  8. Thursday 10th of March 15.30PM – EIA report about Natural gas storage: The EIA will also issue its weekly report on the main changes in natural gas storage, consumption and production in the US. In the EIA recent report natural gas storage reached a total of 1,745 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states as it continued to for the fifteenth straight week, by 4.6%, or 85 billion cubic feet; this draw, was similar to last week’s draw (81 billion cubic feet) and much smaller than the 5-year average draw of 131 BcF; Natural gas consumption rose in the U.S.: the average daily consumption increased by 5% compares to the previous week. (see here my previous review on last week’s figures update);
  9. Friday 11th of March 12.00PM – Canada unemployment rate report: Last month’s report showed an increase in employment by 69 thousand and the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percent points to reach 7.8%, as more people are searching for work. (see here previous report);
  10. Friday 11th of March All day – EU Economic Summit: The summit will talk about major economic issues and policies affecting the Euro area, including the bailout funds given to Greece and Ireland, and prepare for a full summit of all 27 Euro countries at the end of the month (see here for more on the subject).




For further reading (in this site):

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