Weekly outlook for June 27- July 1

The debt crisis in Europe and the economic slowdown in US are among the news items that will likely to continue affecting the Euros to US dollar exchange rate, indexes and major commodities prices in the upcoming week. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of June 27th to July 1st that highlights the main news items and reports related to Europe, U.S. and Canada.

(all times GMT):

  1. Tuesday 28th of June 15.00 – US consumer confidence: in the previous report, the consumer confidence index declined during May compared with April’s index. The current expectations are that this index may drop again in the upcoming report;
  2. Wednesday 29th of June 13.00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will pertain May 2011 and will show the main changes in the core consumer price index which excludes the most volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for April 2011, the CPI rose by 3.3% in 12 month up to April, the same rate as up to March 2011. The main reason for this rate is related to the energy prices that increased by 17.1% during the 12 months up to April 2011;
  3. Wednesday 29th of June 15:00 – U.S. pending home sales: This report shows the major changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for May 2011; in the  recent report regarding April there was a decline in number of homes sold despite the rise during the March and February; this report is likely to show an ongoing decline in sales as the US economy is slowing down (see here the recent report);
  4. Wednesday 29th of June 15:30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish a weekly report on the U.S Petroleum prices and oil stocks bounced back from and rose during last week by 3.084 million barrels or by 0.17% to reach1, 791 million barrels. (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  5. Thursday 30th of June 8:00 – ECB conference Trichet speaks: Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank will probably voice his opinion about the Greek debt and the future steps the ECB will take in dealing with the current debt crisis; there is also speculation about the future rate decision of ECB, and perhaps he might signal his next move on this front;
  6. Thursday 30th of June 09.00 – Monetary developments in the euro area: This monthly report is about M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area. This upcoming report will refer to May 2011. In the previous report pertaining April, the annual growth rate for M3 declined from 2.3% annual rate during March 2011 to 2.0% during April 2011. There was also a declined in the M1 from 3% during March to 1.7% during April. On the other hand, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector inclined from 2.5% in March to 2.6% in April. If this decline will continue in the upcoming report, this may affect ECB’s decision in keeping the interest rate at the same level in the next month (see here the last report);
  7. Thursday 30th of June 13:30 – Canada GDP by industry: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for April 2011. In the last report pertaining March 2011, the real gross domestic product increased by 1%, mainly due to rise in goods productions by 1.8% during March; this report could affect the CAD exchange rate and consequently major commodities prices (for the full previous report).
  8. Thursday 30th of June 13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims: For the week ending on June 17th, initial claims increased by 9,000, as it reached 429,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.9% for the week ending on June 11th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.697 million, a decrease of 1,000 compared with the previous week’s. (see here my recent review on the US Labor market );
  9. Thursday 30th of June 15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the natural gas started to cool down; the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on June 24th. In the previous report, natural gas storage inclined for the eleventh straight week by 4.3% or by 98 Bcf; as a result, the natural gas storage inclined to 2.354 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  10. Friday 24th of June 13:30 – US Department of Commerce – Report on Durable Goods: This monthly report will show the changes in orders of durable goods in the U.S. in the manufacturing sector during May. This report indirectly shows the changes in U.S. demand for goods including major commodities such as crude oil. During April 2011, there was decrease in manufactured durable goods by $7.1 billion or 3.6% to $189.9 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods decreased by $5.3 billion or 7.3% to $67.6 billion (for the full report);
  11. Friday 1st of July 10.00 – Euro Area unemployment rate: This monthly report will show the seasonally adjusted data of unemployment rate in Euro area for May 2011. For the month of April, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.9%, i.e. 15.529 million people were unemployed in the Euro Area. This figure is lower than the rate of April 2010, which stood then on 10.2%. In the EU27, 22.547 million people were unemployed during April 2011. This economic indictor shows there is little improvement so far in the EU zone (see here the last repot).



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