Weekly outlook for May 2-6

Following the short week, here is a weekly outlook for May 2nd to 6th that highlights the main news items and reports related to US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

During the upcoming week, Trading Energy will continue to report and analyze the news that might affect the financial markets and commodities markets including the uprising in Syria and Yemen and the war in Libya.

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 2nd of May 10.00 – ECB president Trichet  speaks: The European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is set to speak about the economic condition of European Union and may reveal whether or not the ECB will raise the current European Union Interest rate;
  2. Tuesday 3rd of May 5.30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – rate statements: The overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained unchanged in the past five months at 4.75%. Since the inflation rate is consistent with the Bank’s monetary policy, and the labor force remained strong, it’s likely that the interest rate will remain unchanged (see here previous report);
  3. Wednesday 4th of May 15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will present its weekly report on the recent news related to U.S Petroleum and oil stocks bounced back and rose by 2.9 million barrels, which is a 0.17% incline compared to the previous week. For the week ending on April 22nd the stocks reached 1,760.1 million barrels. This was the largest injection since March 25th, 2011. (see here my recent review on crude oil stocks);
  4. Thursday 5th of May 13.30 – ECB conference rate decision: The ECB will release its decision on whether or not it will raise the European Union interest rate. The expected inflation rate of April is 2.8% (annual terms) a rise from 2.7% during March, and 2.4% during February. The moderate interest rate increase of only 0.25% from 1% to 1.25% last month didn’t do much to curb the rising inflation, which is driven, in part, by the high oil prices. I speculate Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, will raise the current interest rate by an additional 0.25% (see here my previous report on ECB’s rate decision);
  5. Thursday 5th of May 13.30 – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on April 23rd, initial claims increased by 25,000, to reach 429,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged on 2.9% for the week ending on April 16th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.641 million, a decrease of 68,000 compared to the previous week’s number (see here my review on the US Economy);
  6. Thursday 5th of May 14.30 – Ben Bernanke, Chairman of Fed, speaks: The Federal Reserve chairman’s upcoming speech is titled “Implementing a Macro prudential Approach to Supervision and Regulation. He may refer to the progress of the US economy and the stimulus plan that Fed is implementing. During last week, the news about the US economy’s slowdown and the Fed’s pledge to continue the quantitative easing plan might have be among the reasons for the rapid increase in gold and silver prices by the end of last week (see here my analysis on gold and silver prices from last week);
  7. Thursday 5th of May 15.30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the EIA will also issue a weekly report about the recent changes in natural gas storage, production and consumption in the US. In the recent EIA report natural gas storage increased for the third straight week by 1.9%,; this was a 31 Bcf injection, as the total storage reached 1,685 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states; the natural gas storage was 11 Bcf below the 5-year average, and 11.3% below the storage level during the same week in 2010 (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  8. Friday 6th of May 12.00 – Canada unemployment rate report: In the recent employment report regarding March 2011, full time employment increased by 91,000, but there was a 92,000 decline in part-time employment. The unemployment rate declined to 7.7% (see here previous report);
  9. Friday 6th of May 13.30 – US unemployment rate report & non-farm employment change: This monthly report shows the changes in US employment during April 2011. In the previous report regarding March 2011, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 216 thousand people and the US unemployment rate declined to 8.8% a minor drop of 0.1 percent point compared to February 2011. The current expectations about the upcoming report are that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged (see my last review on the US employment report);


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