Financial Market Preview for April 13 -17

The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trend and picked up against the Euro and Japanese yen. The aftermath of the NFP report and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting provided enough volatility for the markets. Also, the tensions in the Middle East kept the pressure on the oil market. This week, the ECB will announce of any changes it has to its policy. BOC will also announce its rate decision. Other reports and events this week include: U.S. CPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes,   G20 summit, China’s trade balance, GB CPI, Australia’s employment report, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, China’s  industrial production, EU CPI, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales . So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of April 13th to 17th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 10th

23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting may add some insight behind its recent meeting;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded in the past couple of months, but is expected to drop in the upcoming monthly update; this report provide another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

Tuesday, April 11th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans fell to 1,020 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress; the current expectation are for a modest gain in the balance;

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent monthly update, the CPI remained unchanged in February. The current projections are for another flat rate in March;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to March; in the last report regarding February, retail sales fell by 0.6% (month-over-month); core retail inched down by 0.1%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.7% gain in core retail sales in March;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to March 2015. In the last report regarding February, this index for finished goods fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month’s level; the core PPI also dropped by 0.5%; current estimates are for the PPI to presents a modest gain of 0.2% in the next report;

03:00 –China First Quarter GDP 2014: In the fourth quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew by 7.3% in annual terms – unchanged from the previous quarter. The current expectations are for the growth rate to decline to an annual rate of 7% for the first quarter. If the growth rate declines even further, this may adversely impact commodities prices;

03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production expanded at an annual rate of 6.8% — lower than in the preceding month; the growth rate is estimated to edge up — current outlook is for a growth rate of 6.9%;

Wednesday, April 12th

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The ECB will announce of any changes to its monetary policy. This will be a closely watched event and will be followed by a press conference. Draghi’s words are likely to move markets, as they did in previous times. The current expectations are for no major changes to the ECB’s policy, but perhaps the President will elaborate on the progress of ECB’s QE program and future plans for change in policy;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding February 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and dropped by 1.7%; current expectations are for a 0.2% fall;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any shifts to its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any change to its cash rate at this point;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will also publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any changes in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding February 2015 the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.3%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 15.6K people. This report may impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 10th;

Thursday, April 13th

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for March 2015; in the last report, housing starts dropped to 900K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during February, building permits slightly rose to 1,090K houses (the latest U.S building permits update);  current estimates are for a modest drop to 1,080K;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 10th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 281K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly rise to 284K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding March, the growth rate slipped from +5.2 in February to +5 in March. If the index were to bounce back, it may suggest the U.S. economy is slowly progressing (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 10th;

Friday, April 14th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last update, this index grew by 1.8%; current market estimates are for the index to remain at this level;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous report, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 31K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.7%;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of -0.3% as of March. This number means the EU is in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy; current estimates the rate will reach -0.1%;

All Day – G20 Summit: The summit will span over two days in which the G20 finance of ministers will convene and discuss the recent economic developments;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the developments in the core consumer price index for March 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during January, the CPI edged up by 0.2% the core CPI also rose by 0.2%; this report could impact the USD and influence the FOMC members to keep rates low;

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for February; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.6%;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding February 2015, manufacturing sales fell by 1.8%; current estimates are for a 0.5% gain in the upcoming report;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index fell to 91.2;

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