Financial Market Forecast for August 11-15

The commodities markets moved in an unclear trend last week as oil remained nearly flat, natural gas bounced back, silver traded down and gold rallied. On this week’s agenda: U.S consumer sentiment, GDP reports for the second quarter from Japan, EU, and GB, U.S PPI, Draghi testifies, U.S JOLTS report, China and U.S industrial production, BOJ minutes of last policy meeting, GB inflation report, Carney speaks, U.S retail sales, China’s new loans, and German ZEW economic sentiment.  So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of August 11th to 15th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 11th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the previous monthly report, the total loans reached 1,080 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

Tuesday, August 12th

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. During June, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell again to 27.1 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to dwindle, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for July, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding June, the number of jobs opening rose to 4.64 million;

23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some input behind its past meeting;

23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q2 – Preliminary estimate: In the first quarter of the year, the Japanese economy expanded by 1.6% and in the last quarter of 2013 by 0.3%; this time, the report will present the first estimate for the second quarter of the year. The current estimates are that economy contracted by 1.7%, year over year. This report could impact the progress of the Japanese yen;

Wednesday, August 13th

03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production rose to an annual rate of 9.2%; if the growth rate keeps increasing, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report examines the movement in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the past update, this index grew by 0.3%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 36.3K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.5%;

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;

10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to July; in the previous report regarding June, retail sales edged up by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 8th;

Thursday, August 14th

07:00 –EU and German Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, Germany’s economy expanded by 0.8%. The progress of the German economy is likely to impact the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may drag down the Euro;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the latest report, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of 0.4% as of July. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 8th; in the recent report the jobless claims decreased by 14K to reach 289K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 8th;

Friday, August 15th

09:30 –GB Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, GB grew by 0.8% in annual terms – slightly higher than in the previous quarter;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding June 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 1.6%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to July 2014. In the previous report regarding June, this index for finished goods grew by 0.4% compared with May’s level; the core PPI also rose by 0.2%; this news might impact the USD;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for June 2014. In the previous report regarding May 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $19.4 billion;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during July; as of June, the production changed direction and rose by 0.2%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index inched up to 81.3;

For further reading: