Financial Market Forecast for August 4-8

Most leading commodities took a nose dive last week, while USD rallied against leading currencies.  This week, BOJ, BOE, RBA and ECB will have a rate decision meeting, in the U.S several economic reports will come out including non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders, trade balance, and jobless claims. I  n Europe, EU retail sales and Germany’s factory orders will be released. EU monetary development, CPI and rate of unemployment will also be published. China’s CPI and trade balance report will come out. In Canada, employment report and trade balance monthly updates will be released. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of August 4th to August 8th

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 4th

10:00 – Spanish Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the unemployment fell by 122.7K;

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to June. In the last update, for May, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1.91 billion deficit; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest an increase in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate flat since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.5%. RBA isn’t likely to change its cash rate in the upcoming meeting;

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index dropped to 57.7; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;

10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to June 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade remained unchanged during May;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to July 2014. In the recent report, this index inched down to 56% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the last month;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report shows the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in July; in the latest report factory orders fell by 0.5%; this report will offer some insight regarding the developments in the U.S economy;

Wednesday, August 6th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders declined by 1.7% during June;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of June; in the last report regarding May 2014 the index decreased by 1.3%;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the trade balance moved from $0.6 deficit in April to $0.2 billion deficit in May; if the trade balance show a sharp change, it could impact the Canadian dollar;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for May will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update regarding April the goods and services deficit narrowed to $44.4 billion;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 2nd;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding June 2014 the rate of unemployment rose to 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 15,900 people. This report could impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, August 7th

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for August 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of April, BOE left its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy for August. Following the previous decision from last month, Mario Draghi may refer to any future steps the ECB could take to jump start the EU economy;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 2nd; in the last report the jobless claims rose by 23K to 302K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 2nd;

Friday, August 8th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the direction of the Japanese yen;

07:00 – German Trade Balance: In the previous report, the country’s surplus in its balance of goods and services was $18.8 billion – a gain from the last month;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the last monthly report, China’s trade balance dropped to a $31.6 billion surplus; if the surplus expands further, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for June 2014, unemployment inched up to 7.1%; the employment fell by 9.4K during last month;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 2.3%; if the annual rate falls again, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;


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