Financial Market Preview for December 30-January 2

The last week of the year is likely to be another slow paced one in the financial markets. In the U.S. there are a few reports that will be released including: manufacturing PMI, pending home sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. In Europe, EU monetary development, Spanish CPI and unemployment reports, and GB manufacturing PMI; finally, China’s manufacturing PMI will be published. So let’s examine in detail the agenda for the last week of 2014 for December 30th to January 2nd, 2015:

(All times GMT):

Tuesday, December 30th

08:00 – Spanish Flash CPI: In the last CPI report for November 2014, the CPI declined by 0.4%. This time the expectations are for the CPI to decline by 0.7%;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of November 2014. In the last October report, the annual growth rate for M3 remained flat at 2.5%; M1 also didn’t change at 6.2%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -0.5%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will edge up to 2.6%;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for November, the consumer confidence index dropped to 88.7; this suggests consumer spending is growing slower. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will pick back up to 94.6;

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s recent estimate for its December’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors aren’t growing. If the updated PMI index falls – current estimates are at 49.5, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down;

Wednesday, December 31st

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 26th; in the recent report the jobless claims declined again to 280K;

15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during November; in the previous update for October, pending home sales index decreased by 1.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the changes of the U.S housing market; if the index rises, it may positively impact the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 26th;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of December 26th;

Thursday, January 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of October, the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.3 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace. Analysts currently estimate that China’s PMI slipped again in the past month to 50;

Friday, January 2nd

08:00 – Spanish Unemployment change: In the previous report for November 2014 the number of unemployed fell by 14.7K. This time the number of unemployed fell by 72K;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During September, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 53.5 – market expectations are that in October the PMI inched up again to 53.7;

15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to December 2014. Back in November, the index slipped to 58.7; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to decline to 57.6;

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