Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for December 9-13

The commodities markets shifted gear as energy commodities such as oil and natural gas rallied, while precious metals such as gold and silver tumbled down. The U.S reports that were published last week including GDP, NF payroll, manufacturing PMI, and jobless claims were mostly positive; they showed the U.S economy is slowly recovering from its setback. Next week, several news items, speeches, and reports could affect the direction of forex and commodities prices including: U.S retail sales, Draghi’s speech, U.S PPI, China’s CPI, German and French industrial production, Japan’s third quarter GDP, U.S federal budget, FOMC member Bullard speaks, Great Britain manufacturing production, EU group and ECOFIN  Summits,  OPEC monthly report, Australia’s employment update, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of December 9th to December 13th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 9th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the changes in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

00:50 –Japan Third Quarter GDP 2013 (final): In the second quarter of 2013, Japan’s GDP grew by 0.9% (q-over-q) – A slower pace than in the first quarter (1.1%). Moreover, in the first estimate of the third quarter, the GDP grew by 0.5% (q-over-q) and by 1.9% in annual terms. If the growth rate were to be revised downward, this may pressure down the Japanese yen;

Tentative – China’s CPI: Last month, China’s inflation rate slightly grew to an annual rate of 3.2%, which is still below Bank of China’s target inflation. The lower than targeted inflation indicates lack of progress in China’s economy. If the inflation resumes its downward trend, this may indicate China’s economy isn’t improving;

All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest developments in Europe;

11:00 – German Industrial Production: The next report will refer to November 2013. In the previous update, the industrial production changed course and fell by 0.9% during October;

17:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech at the Economic Club of New York;

18:05 – Bullard’s Speech: FOMC member and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, will give a speech regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Chartered Financial Analysts Society of St. Louis. This will be a good chance to get some hints regarding the next FOMC meeting and figure if the Fed is likely to make any changes to its monetary policy;

Tuesday, December 10th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent shifts in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell for the first time in three months; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main changes in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during November 2013; this update will also pertain to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: Based on the previous month’s report, China industrial production slightly rose to an annual rate of 10.3%; if the growth rate further rises, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing faster;

07:45 – French Industrial Production: This upcoming report will refer to November’s figures. In the last update, the industrial production fell by 0.5% during October;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of October; in the last report regarding September 2013 the index bounced back by 1.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;

12:00 – Draghi’s Speech: Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, will talk at the Bank of Italy’s conference in memory of Curzio Giannini, in Rome. If he refers in this talk to the ECB’s plans of changing its current policy including the LTRO or cash rate, this talk could affect the Euro;

Wednesday, December 11th

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of November, the average rate reached 2.75% – the highest rate since September 2013;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 6th;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to November 2013; this report suggests the government debt growth and thus may affect the changes in U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding October the deficit rose by $91 billion; if the deficit continues to expand, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding November 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly increased by 1,100 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, December 12th

08:00 – Draghi’s Speech: ECB President will give another speech this week. This time, it will refer to  European Central Bank policy and will take place at the European Parliament debate, in Strasbourg;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of November) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will release its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate;

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for November analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to November; in the last report regarding October, retail sales slightly rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the shifts in demand for gasoline;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 6th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell again by 23k to reach 298k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 6th;

18:05 –Governor Poloz speaks: The Governor of Bank of Canada is due to give a speech; He will also hold a press conference after the speaking time is over;; his words could affect the direction of the Canadian dollar;

Friday, December 13th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to November 2013. In the last report regarding October, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.2% compared with September’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.2%; this news might affect the USD;

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