Last week’s FOMC decision to cut further its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion a month may have contributed to the rally of the US dollar and the decline of precious metals prices. This upcoming week will be packed with many news items, decisions, reports and events that could stir up the financial markets again. These include: U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA ECB and BOE rate decisions, U.S, Canada, and Australia trade balance reports, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, EU and Australia retail sales updates, and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic forecast for the week of February 3rd to February 7th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, Euro Area, and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):
Monday, February 3rd
08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in January 2014. In the previous update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 50.8. This rate drop means the manufacturing sector is contracting;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 57.3. This rate gain suggests the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate; this index might affect GB Pound;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2014. In December, the index slipped to 57%; this means the manufacturing is growing at a slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The last time the RBA reduced its cash rate was back in September. The current rate is set at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to depreciation of the Aussie dollar against leading currencies including Euro and USD. The current expectations are that RBA will maintain its cash rate flat in this upcoming rate decision;
Tuesday, February 4th
08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for December 2013, unemployment plummeted by 107.6k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI:Great Britain’s construction sector in December 2013 slipped as the PMI increased to 62.1 – the construction sector is growing at a slower pace. The upcoming report will refer to January;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during January; in the latest report factory orders increased by 1.8%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
Wednesday, February 5th
08:15 – Spanish Services PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s services sector in January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 54.2. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is growing;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index decreased to 58.8; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to December 2013. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.4% during November;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to January 2014. In the recent report, this index declined to 53% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 31st;
Thursday, February 6th
02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to December 2013. In the latest report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.7% during November; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be linked with oil and gold prices;
02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to December. In the previous update, for November, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $120 million deficit; if gold exports rally, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 2.1% during December;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for February 2014; the MPC will also state of any shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of December, BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce its monetary policy and economic forecast as of February. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to cut the cash deposit rate to become negative. This kind of hint might drag down the Euro;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 31st; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 19k to reach 348k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding November 2013, the trade balance moved from $75 million surplus in October to a $0.9 billion deficit in November; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for December will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding November the goods and services deficit narrowed to $34.3 billion;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of January 31st;
Friday, February 7th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will preset the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of December; in the last report regarding November 2013 the index remained flat; this news may affect the British Pound;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for December 2013, unemployment rose to 7.2%; the employment fell by 45.9k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report regarding December 2013, the labor market modestly improved: The number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 74k – much lower than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%. If the employment exceed 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
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