Financial Market Preview for January 12 -16

The last NFP payroll report didn’t cause too many waves in the markets as it showed a 252K gain in jobs in December – inline with market expectations. Moreover, the recent minutes of the FOMC meeting also didn’t stir up the markets as they were relatively well balanced.  Looking forward, this week’s main publications and events include: China’s trade balance, U.S. JOLTS, EU CPI, U.S. retail sales, BOC business outlook, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. CPI and PPI, EU industrial production, GB CPI, Philly Fed index, consumer sentiment, China’s news loans, European Court of Justice Ruling and U.S. industrial production. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of January 12th to 16th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 12th

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential developments in BOC’s monetary policy;

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will show the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the preceding monthly report the surplus in the current account grew again to 0.95 trillion yen;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly report, China’s trade balance grew to a $54.5 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to shrink to $48.9 billion;

Tuesday, January 13th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans rose to 853 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1% during November. The current projections are for that it will fall to 0.7% for December. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for December, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update regarding November, the number of jobs opening rose to 4.83 million; current market predictions are for the number to rise again to 4.91 million;

Wednesday, January 14th

Tentative – European Court of Justice Ruling: The European Court of Justice will announce a ruling on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism and Fiscal Compact, in Brussels;

10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production edged up by 0.1%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show no gain in industrial production, month over month;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to December; in the last report regarding November, retail sales rose by 0.7% (month-over-month); core retail also rallied by 0.5%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.2% gain in core retail sales in December;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 9th;

Thursday, January 15th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding November 2014 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.3%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 42.7K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2014. In the previous report regarding November, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.2% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI remained unchanged; this news may impact the USD;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 9th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 294K; the expectations are  for this number to rose to 299K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding December, the growth rate fell from +40.8 in November to +24.5 in December. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely impact not only U.S. Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 9th;

Friday, January 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the flash estimate, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of -0.2% as of December. This number means the EU is technically in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for December 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during November, the CPI declined by 0.3% the core CPI inched up by 0.1%; this report could impact the USD and change the FOMC’s monetary policy;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, industrial production rose by 1.3%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index rose again to 93.8;

For further reading: