Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for January 13-17

The financial markets heated up as most stocks markets and commodities rallied during last week. The lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during December, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to rise on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and speeches will take place including: Bernanke’s speech, U.S housing starts, Japan’s current account, GB CPI, EU industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S CPI and PPI, BOC Business Outlook Survey, U.S federal budget, China new loans, U.S Philly fed index, German CPI, and U.S. jobless claims.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of January 13th to January 17th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.  

 (All times GMT):

Monday, January 13th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell for the first time in three months; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to December 2013; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding November the deficit rose by $135 billion; if the deficit continues to widen, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the shifts in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

Tuesday, January 14th

09:30 – GB CPI (December 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding November 2013, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 2.1%; if the inflation rate continues its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of December; as of November, the production fell by 1.1%; this report may affect the Euro currency;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to December; in the last report regarding November, retail sales slightly rose by 0.7% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2013. In the last report regarding November, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with November’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; this news might affect the USD;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding November 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 21,000 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

Wednesday, January 15th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for December analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during December 2013; this update will also pertain to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 10th;

Thursday, January 16th

07:00 – German Final CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI slightly rose by 0.2% during November, and the current annual rate is 1.3%. The changes in Germany’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for December 2013. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during November, the CPI  remained flat; the core CPI inched up again by 0.2%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 10th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell again by 15k to reach 330k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for November 2013. In the recent report regarding October 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $35.4 billion;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding December, the growth rate slightly rose from +7 in November to +7 in December. If the index further declines, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 10th;

16:10 –Bernanke’s Speech: The exiting Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to give a speech titled “The Fed Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow” at the Brookings Institution, in WashingtonDC;

Friday, January 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.3%; this report could affect the British pound;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for December 2013; this report was historically correlated with gold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts grew by 22.7% during November to reach over 1.09 million houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during November, building permits slipped by 3.1% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,007,000. If building permits pick up, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update);

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This update will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, the production rose by 1.1%; this report may affect the US dollar;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index sharply rose to 82.5;

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