Financial Market Forecast for July 7-11

The financial markets cooled down last week as oil prices declined and natural gas and precious metals remained nearly unchanged. This week, several economic reports will be released including minutes of the recent FOMC meeting, JOLTS, and jobless claims. In Europe, BOE rate decision will set the pace for the week. OPEC and IEA will publish their monthly oil update. Here is an economic outlook for the week of July 7th to July 11th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, July 7th

08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the last update, total reserves reached 444.4 billion CHF;

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic forecast. This report could also reflect the potential shifts in BOC’s monetary policy;

Tuesday, July 8th

07:00 – German Trade Balance: In the previous report, the country’s surplus in its balance of goods and services was $17.7 billion – an increase from the previous month;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of May; in the last report regarding April 2014 the index rose by 0.4%; this news may affect the British Pound;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings during June, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding May, the number of jobs opening was 4.46 million;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI rallied to an annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate rises again, it could signal the Chinese economy is heating up;

Wednesday, July 9th

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 4th;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: Back in June, the FOMC meeting decided to taper again its asset purchase program by $10 billion to a pace of $35 billion a month.  But the dovish tone in Yellen’s statements at the press conference was enough to pull up gold and silver. The upcoming minutes might provide some information on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about raising its interest rate;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding May 2014 the rate of unemployment remained at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) fell by 4,800 people. This report could impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, July 10th

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for July 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of April, BOE left its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 4th; in the last report the jobless claims rose by 2K to reach 315K; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of July 4th;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during June 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil rates;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $35.9 billion surplus; if the surplus expands further, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans reached 871 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;

Friday, July 11th

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for May 2014, unemployment inched up to 7%; the employment grew by 25.8K during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities rates;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of June) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014; 

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