Financial Market Forecast for June 9-13

The commodities and forex markets remained relatively unchanged last week as the prices of precious metals, natural gas and oil slightly moved. This week, many news items of the agenda including: U.S PPI, China’s industrial production, U.S JOLTS report, EU retail sales, China’s new loans, OPEC meeting, U.S retail sales, BOE’s Governor  speech, and U.S industrial production.  So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of June 9th to June 13th.  

(All times GMT): 

Monday, June 9th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance rose from to a $18.5 billion surplus; if the surplus expands further, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will pertain to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

05:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to deliver a speech titled “Financial Regulation: Some Observations” at the Federal Reserve Bank’s Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, in San Fransisco; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of 1.8%; if the annual rate falls again, it could signal the Chinese economy is cooling down;

Tuesday, June 10th

08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of May; as of April, the production slipped by 0.7%;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans reached 775 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of April; in the last report regarding March 2014 the index rose by 0.5%; this news may affect the British Pound;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings during May, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding April, the number of jobs opening was 4.01 million;

Wednesday, June 11th

All Day – OPEC Meeting: This is the first meeting for this year for OPEC members, in which the members will decides on any changes to the OPEC’s oil production quota;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 25.1K; the rate of unemployment dropped at 6.8%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 6th;

18:00 – U.S 10-year Bond Auction: This is a monthly bond auction of U.S government;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to May 2014; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding April the surplus grew by $106.9 billion; if the surplus widens again, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding implementing additional budget cuts in the future;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding April 2014 the rate of unemployment remained at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 14,200 people. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, June 12th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for April analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of May; as of April, the production inched down by 0.3%;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to May; in the last report regarding April, retail sales inched up by 0.1% (month-over-month); core retail remained flat; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during May 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 6th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 8K to reach 312K; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 6th;

16:15 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to speak about the Financial System Review, in Ottawa;

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will speak at the Annual Mansion House Dinner, in London;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the direction of the Japanese yen;

Friday, June 13th

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production slipped to an annual rate of 8.7%; if the growth rate falls again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing slower;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding April 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 0.4%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to May 2014. In the latest report regarding April, this index for finished goods rose by 0.6% compared with March’s level; the core PPI also increased by 0.5%; this news might affect the USD;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous report, the sentiment index rose to 81.8;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of May) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014; 

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