Financial Market Preview for March 16 -20

The U.S. dollar continued to rally mostly against the Euro as the ECB commenced its QE program and the previous NFP report raised the market expectations for a rate hike this year by the FOMC. This week, the FOMC meeting will take the center stage – will the FOMC change the wording of the statement?  Other events and publications to consider this week include: EU summit, Japan’s  trade balance, ECB President Draghi speaks, minutes of last RBA rate decision, BOE and SNB rate decisions, U.S. jobless claims, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. industrial production, EU CPI, Targeted LTRO, U.S. housing starts, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales . So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of March 16th to 20th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 16th

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during February; as of January, industrial production edged up by 0.2%;

19:45 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the SZ Finance Day 2015 “The Future of the Finance Industry – Between Growth and Regulation” summit, in Frankfurt;

Tuesday, March 17th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.25%; the minutes will provide additional input regarding the last rate decision;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for February. During January, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 53 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to increase, this may imply a recovery in Germany’s economic sentiment;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of -0.6% as of February. This number means the EU is in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy; current estimates the rate will reach -0.3%;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding January 2015, manufacturing sales increased by 1.7%; current expectations are for a 1.1% fall;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S. housing starts monthly update for February 2015; in the last report, housing starts slipped to 1,070K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during January, building permits slightly rose to 1,050K houses (the latest U.S building permits update);

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will talk about the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to make any changes to the bank’s asset purchase program;

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in December 2014 the Japanese trade balance deficit narrowed to 410 billion yen (roughly $3.41 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;

Wednesday, March 18th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last update, this index grew by 2.1%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 2.2%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous update, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 38.6K; the rate of unemployment inched down again to 5.7%;

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the recent MPC meeting, the Bank maintained its left rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the major change in MPC’s policy is currently expected to occur in the coming months;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 13th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This will be the second FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between March 17th and 18th. This time, the FOMC will also release an update to its economic outlook and FOMC Chair Yellen will hold a press conference. This time all eyes will be towards whether the FOMC will omit the patience term from the statement. The FOMC will also refer to the recent strong NF payroll report, the deflation pressures, the growth in the U.S. economy and the global economic slowdown; if the FOMC turns a bit more hawkish, this could raise the odds of a rate hike in the near term, which could further bring down gold and silver prices;

Thursday, March 19th

09:30 – Libor Rate: The SNB will announce of any changes to its Libor rate, which is currently at -0.75% — current estimates are for the rate to remain unchanged; the SNB will also hold a press conference and will release a policy assessment;

11:15 – Targeted LTRO: The ECB will lend banks cash for lending it to people and companies; the first one only brought in 82.6 billion Euros; the second 129.8 billion Euros – in both cases they were lower than expected;

All Day – EU Economic Summit: This will be a two day summit;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 13th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 289K; the expectations are  for this number to rise to 297K;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding February, the growth rate fell +6.3 in January to +5.2 in February. If the index were to rise, it may positively impact not only U.S. dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 13th;

Friday, March 20th

03:10 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia luncheon, in Melbourne;

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the previous month’s report, public net borrowing reached a deficit of $9.4 billion; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments;

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the shifts in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for January; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.2%;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding December 2014, manufacturing sales fell by 2%; current estimates are for a 0.3% fall in the next report;

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