The precious metals market cooled down again last week; energy commodities prices rallied; in the forex market the U.S dollar slightly appreciated against the Euro and Japanese yen and dropped against the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar. This week many news items, decisions, speeches, press conference and events could affect the commodities and forex markets. These include: FOMC Chair Yellen’s speech, U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA and ECB rate decisions, China’s manufacturing PMI, Australia’s retail sales, U.S and Canada trade balance updates, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, RBA governor speech, EU and German retail sales reports, ECOFIN Summit and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic outlook for the week of March 31st to April 4th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, China, Euro Area, and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):
Monday, March 31st
07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 2.5% during January;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the coming months;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. Based on the last estimate for February, the annual CPI reached 0.8%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate picks up, this could indicate the EU economy is slowly recovering. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision later this week;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly update shows the developments in major industrial sectors for January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.5%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices including oil and gold;
14:55 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the latest FOMC decision to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech at the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Chicago. The title of her speech is “Strengthening Communities”. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy or the progress of the U.S economy;
16:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will participate in a press conference at the Bank of England, in London;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of February, the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still growing but at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI declines again, it could signal slowdown in the progress of China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its March’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 48.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA didn’t slash its cash rate since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to fall of the Aussie dollar against currencies such Euro and USD. Nonetheless, RBA isn’t likely to cut down its cash rate in the upcoming meeting – this could pull back up the Aussie dollar;
Tuesday, April 1st
08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in March 2014. In the last update regarding February 2014 the index inched up to 52.5. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster rate;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index edged up to 56.9. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12%. If the rate of unemployment remains elevated, it could adversely affect the Euro;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to March 2014. In February, the index bounced back to 53.2; this means the manufacturing is growing at a faster pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
Wednesday, April 2nd
08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for February 2014, unemployment slipped by 1.9k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for March 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during March; in the latest report factory orders declined by 0.7%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 28th;
Thursday, April 3rd
01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 1.2% during January; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to February. In the previous update, for January, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1,430 million surplus; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest a rally in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
03:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia iiNet Business Luncheon, in Brisbane; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.6% during January;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy and economic outlook as of April. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to reduce the cash deposit rate. This rate decision could affect the direction of the Euro; an ECB press conference will also be held following the statement of the ECB regarding its monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 28th; in the last report the jobless claims decreased by 10k to reach 311k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding January 2014, the trade balance moved from $1.7 billion deficit in December to $0.2 billion deficit in January; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for February will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding January the goods and services deficit widened to $39.1 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, this index fell to 51.6% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of March 28th;
Friday, April 4th
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 1.2% during February;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for February 2014, unemployment remained at 7%; the employment slipped by 7k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities rates;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report regarding February 2014, the labor market grew again: The number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 175k – higher than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate inched up to 6.7%. If the employment growth exceeds 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down again gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
15:00 – Canadian Ivey PMI: In the previous update, the PMI rose to 57.2; this index may affect the progress of the Canadian dollar;
For further reading: