Financial Market Preview for November 2-6

The Fed’s decision helped pull back up the U.S. dollar – as more people think the Fed may actually raise rates in December. But it’s far from certain and the latest GDP for Q3 shows the U.S. economic growth isn’t too robust. This week the main event will be the U.S. NFP. But there are two rate decisions and other events to look for including: FOMC Yellen testifies, BOE and RBA rate decisions, China, GB and U.S. manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, and Australian retail sales. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of November 2nd to 6th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 2nd

02:45 – China’s Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI: In the last estimate, the PMI inched down to 47.2; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 47.7 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting albeit at a slower rate; it’s less important than the flash estimate but could still move markets;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in September, Great Britain’s manufacturing index remained unchanged at 51.5 – market expectations are that in October the PMI edged down to 51.3;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to October 2015. In the recent update for September, this index fell to 50.2 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace; current estimates are for the PMI to fall again to 50;

Tuesday, November 3rd

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2%. The RBA is expected to keep its rates flat this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and slash rates or at the very least hint of possible rate cuts in the near term;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the shifts in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in October; in the September report, factory orders fell by 1.7%; current projections are for a 0.8% drop in October;

Wednesday, November 4th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4%;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for October 2015 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will testify before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, in Washington DC; she will present the Fed’s Supervision and Regulation; she will also give a speech at the National Economists Club Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture, Washington – the title of the speech Central Bank Independence;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in September, the PMI declined to 56.9– the non-manufacturing sector is growing albeit at a slower pace; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 56.6;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 30th;

23:25 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at Melbourne Institute’s Economic and Social Outlook Conference, in Melbourne;

Thursday, November 5th

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous update, factory orders fell by 1.8% during September; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 1.1% in October;

11:00 – EU Economic Forecasts: EU states will release an economic forecast for the EU for the next two years;

13:00 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2015and 2016;

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: This event isn’t likely to make waves in the markets considering Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy at this point. But given the latest news from the Fed and ECB perhaps the BOE will provide an update as to its future policy;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 30th; in the last report, jobless claims rose to 260K; the expectations are  for this number to rise to 263K;

13:45 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 30th;

Friday, November 6th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for September; in the last report regarding August 2015 the index rose by 0.5%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.4% gain;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding September, unemployment rose to 7.1%; the employment, by 12.1K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report, only 142K jobs were added – much lower than expected; the U.S. unemployment rate remained flat at 5.1%. If the upcoming report doesn’t show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 179K), this could bring back down the USD and pull back up precious metals;

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