Financial Market Preview for November 23-27

The latest release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting didn’t much new information and in any case the tragic events in Paris at the end of last week took center stage all throughout the week. These events may have led to a drop in trading volume in the major markets in the EU including Germany, France Italy and Spain. This week, however, is expected to be a short one due to Thanksgiving that could result in lower trading volume in the U.S. This week’s reports are: U.S. GDP for Q3, EU monetary development, GB GDP for Q3, U.S. core durable goods, German Ifo business climate, U.S. consumer confidence, German manufacturing PMI, U.S. PCE, and Australian new capital expenditures, and U.S. new home sales. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of November 23-27.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 23rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last September update, France’s PMI inched up to 50.7 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing. While Germany’s PMI declined again to 51.6 – the industry is expanding at a slower pace;   currently, however, the market estimates Germany’s PMI will slightly rise to 52.2;

Tentative – Fed Announcement: This is another release, on top no the scheduled statements that could present any new updated the Fed has in its monetary policy;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for October 2015; in the September report, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to decline to 5.38 million houses;

Tuesday, November 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of November. In the October report, the business climate index edged down to 108.2; currently, the market expects a modest slightly rise to 108.3;

09:05 – Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak about issues in economic policy at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney;

13:30 – Second Estimate of U.S GDP for 3Q 2015: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q3 the GDP grew by 1.5% — marginally lower than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to bounce back to 2%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for October, consumer confidence index dropped to 97.6. The current estimates are that the index rally to 99.3;

Wednesday, November 25th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to October and will indicate the developments in U.S demand f

or commodities including oil and gas. As of September 2015, core durable goods fell by 0.4%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to show a rise of 0.5%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 20th; in the previous report, jobless claims slipped to 271K; the expectations are  for this number to rise to 273K;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to analyze the progress in U.S. inflation. In the last report, the PCE index increase by 0.1% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up again by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.3%;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to October; in the latest report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes decreased to an annual rate of 468,000; current estimates are for a faster growth with an annual rate of 500,000;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the previous report, the sentiment index rose to 90;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 20th;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 20th;

Thursday, November 26th

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the third quarter of 2015. As of Q2, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure declined by 4% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for another 2.8% fall in Q3;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of October 2015. In the September report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched up to 4.9%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to remain at 4.9%;

Friday, November 27th

09:30 – Second Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q3 2015: This report will shows the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for Q3 2015; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.5%; currently, the market estimates the GDP report will show no change in the growth rate;

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