Financial Market Forecast for November 3-7

The high volatility in the market following the FOMC and BOJ’s monetary policy meetings from last week could remain in the coming week. The main events of the week in the U.S. include NF payroll report, manufacturing PMI, factory orders and trade balance. In Europe, ECB and BOE rate decisions will take the spot light along with France’s manufacturing PMI and Germany factory orders. In China, the trade balance and manufacturing PMI will be published. In Australia and Canada employment and trade balance reports will released. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of November 3rd to 7th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 3rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its October’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slow pace. If the updated PMI index rises – current estimates are at 50.4, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowly improving;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During July, Great Britain’s manufacturing index dropped to 51.6 – market expectations are that in August the PMI inched down to 51.5;

15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to October 2014. Back in September, the index declined to 56.6; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to remain relatively stable and only inch down to 56.5;

18:50 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to speak about the legacy of the financial crisis at the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnerships, in Toronto;

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will pertain to September. In the last update, for August, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $0.79 billion deficit; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports fall, it might suggest a drop in demand for non-monetary gold (see here the previous update);

Tuesday, November 4th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA left its cash rate unchanged since September of 2013. The current rate is set at 2.5%. But the ongoing weakening of the Aussie against the USD may affect RBA members’ decision on the cash rate. For now, RBA is expected to keep its cash rate unchanged in the coming meeting;

09:30 – GB Construction PMI: In the last monthly update, this index edged up to 64.2;

11:00 – EU Economic Forecast: The European Commission will issue its quarterly outlook report for the EU economy;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the trade balance moved from $2.6 billion surplus in July to $0.6 billion deficit in August; if the trade balance shows a sharp shift, it could move the Canadian dollar;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for August will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding July the goods and services deficit narrowed again to $40.1 billion;

15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report shows the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in October; in the latest report regarding September factory orders dropped by 10.1%; this report will offer some insight regarding the shifts in the U.S economy;

18:50 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa;

03:30 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan is due to speak at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting, in Tokyo;

Wednesday, November 5th

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last update, this index declined to 58.7; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;

10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to September 2014. In the previous report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.2% during August;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for October 2014 that will be released on Friday;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to October 2014. In the last report, this index slipped to 58.6% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate compared to the last month;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 31st;

Thursday, November 6th

00:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its past meeting and the recent decision to expand its asset purchase program;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding September 2014 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 6.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) fell by 29.7K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last update, factory orders fell by 5.7% during September;

All Day – Euro-group Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic changes in Europe, euro support mechanisms and government finances;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of September; in the last report regarding August 2014 the index inched up again by 0.1%;

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for October 2014; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; BOE governor Carney may hint of any shifts in the rate in the coming months, but the current expectations are for no changes to the rate in this meeting; as of last month, BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce of any changes to its monetary policy for October. This time, Mario Draghi may offer some additional information regarding ECB’s future plans to implement its ABS program. It’s unlikely to see another rate cut as the bank stated the rate reached its lower bound;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 31st; in the previous report the jobless claims slightly rose to 287K;

15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI rallied to 58.6, which shows growth at a faster pace;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 31st;

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report pertaining to the Bank’s monetary policy;

Friday, November 7th

06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report presents the changes in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index remained unchanged;

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic changes in Europe, euro support mechanisms and government finances;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report referring to September 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 248K – higher than expected; the U.S unemployment rate slipped again to 5.9%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain of well above 200K (current estimates are at 229K), this could further strengthen the USD and bring down precious metals;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for September 2014, unemployment slipped to 6.8%; the employment grew by 74.1K;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly update, China’s trade balance narrowed to a $31 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to rise to $35.6 billion;


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