Financial Market Preview for November 30- December 4

The U.S. dollar kept climbing up in the past week as the U.S. GDP showed a growth rate of 2.1% — a bit higher than expected. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the ECB’s upcoming rate decision and whether it will introduce more policy changes aiming to depreciate the Euro. Besides the ECB rate decision, this week’s other important events and reports include: The U.S. NFP report,  FOMC Yellen testifies, BOC and RBA rate decisions, China and U.S. manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, and Australia’s GDP for Q3. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of November 30th to December 4th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 30th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for October 2015, retail sales remained unchanged;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S during October; in the previous update for September, pending home sales index fell by 2.3% (month-over-month). Currently, the market expects home sales to increase by 1.6% in the last month;

Tuesday, December 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still contracting. Current estimates are for a modest gain to 49.9;

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the last estimate, the PMI rose to 48.3; current estimates are for the PMI to remain at 48.3 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting;

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA maintains its cash rate unchanged at 2%. The RBA is expected to keep its rates flat this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and slash rates or at the very least hint of possible rate cuts in the coming months;

09:00 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report and UK Bank Stress Testing, in London;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in October, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 55.5 – market expectations are that in November the PMI fell to 53.7;

10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down to 10.8%;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for September 2015. In the previous update regarding August 2015, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.1%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise again by 0.1%;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to November 2015. In the recent update for October, this index fell to 50.1 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower rate; current estimates are for the PMI to bounce back to 50.6;

23:30 – Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce breakfast, in Perth;

Wednesday, December 2nd

00:30 – Australian GDP Third Quarter of 2015: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for Q3 2015. In the second quarter, the GDP grew by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.7% gain in Q3 (see here last update);

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for October, the annual CPI was unchanged. The core CPI rose to 1%. The current estimates are that the inflation rises back to 0.2%, and the core CPI to 1.1%;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for November 2015 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate: Back in October Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 0.50%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;

15:25 –FOMC Chair Yellen Talks: Janet Yellen will give a speech before Economic Club of Washington, in Washington DC; she will talk about the economic outlook of the U.S. and will the last major event before the FOMC meeting later this month;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 27th;

Thursday, December 3rd

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The press conference of ECB’s President Draghi will be the main event of the week to move markets. Many speculate what the ECB will do this time. Some suggested the ECB may introduce a two tier program for negative deposit rates. Others suspect it could be a reduction of the deposit rate and an increase in the QE program. In any case, this event is likely to impact the Euro;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 27th; in the recent report, jobless claims fell to 260K; the expectations are  for this number to rise to 269K;

15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Talks: Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.; again, she will talk about the U.S. economic outlook;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in October, the PMI rallied to 59.1– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace; current estimates are for the PMI to decline to 58.1;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the shifts in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in November; in the October report, factory orders fell by 1%; current projections are for a 1.2% gain in November;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 27th;

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose again by 0.4%;

Friday, December 4th

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders declined by 1.7% during October; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 1.3% in November;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding October, unemployment slipped to 7%; the employment increased by 44.41K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report 271K jobs were added – much higher than expected; the U.S. unemployment rate inched down to 5%. If the upcoming report shows another stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 201K), this could further boost the USD and drag down precious metals;

For further reading: