Financial Market Forecast for October 6-10

Following the better than expected NF payroll report, in  which the USD rallied, while precious metals took a nose dive, this week the U.S JOLTS report will complete the NF payroll report; this report may offer another data point about the progress of the labor market. The minutes of the FOMC meeting will also be published. In Europe, BOE will decide its cash rate, ECB President Draghi will give a speech, and Germany factory orders will be released. China’s new loan and Australia and Canada’s employment reports will be published. RBA will also announce its cash rate for the month.  So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of October 6th to 10th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 6th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders rose by 4.6% during August;

15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI declined to 50.9, which shows growth but at slower pace;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may impact the Japanese yen;

Tuesday, October 7th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged since September of last year. The current rate is set at 2.5%. But the recent weakening of the Aussie against the USD may impact RBA members’ decision on the cash rate. For now, RBA isn’t expected to make any changes in its cash rate in the coming meeting;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of August; in the last report regarding July 2014 the index rose again by 0.3%;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for September, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding August, the number of jobs opening remained unchanged at 4.67 million;

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the previous monthly update the surplus in the current account slid to 0.10 trillion yen;

Wednesday, October 8th

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of September, the average rate reached 2.54% – slightly higher than last month’s bond auction;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 3rd;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the previous meeting back in September, the FOMC decided to taper again its asset purchase program by $10 billion to a pace of $15 billion a month. The FOMC also updated its economic outlook and revised upward its estimate for the federal rate by the end of next year. But the statement kept the phrase “considerable time” and the timing of the rate hike and pace is still unclear. The upcoming minutes might provide some insight into the deliberations among FOMC members;

Thursday, October 9th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding August 2014 the rate of unemployment slipped to 6.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) hiked by 121K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will come out with its basic rate for September 2014; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; BOE governor Carney may hint of any shifts in the rate anytime soon; as of last month, BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 3rd; in the previous report the jobless claims slipped to 287K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 3rd;

16:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak about the recent developments in Europe, at the Brookings Institution, in Washington DC;

All Day – G20 Meeting: The finance ministers of the top 20 economies will meet and talk about the burning global economic issues on the agenda such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine;

Friday, October 10th

00:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its past meeting;

06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the changes in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index rose by 0.2%;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans reached 703 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for August 2014, unemployment remained at 7%; the employment contracted by 11K;

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential developments in BOC’s monetary policy;

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