Financial Market Outlook for April 18-22

The volatility in the markets continue to pick up as the earning season progresses. And this week we have two main events: Doha meeting on Sunday and ECB policy meeting, in other words we have a double D theme: Doha and Draghi. In Doha Qatar several OPEC members and Russia will try to decide on an output freeze. The outcome of this summit is likely to move oil prices. And later this week Draghi and every event that includes Draghi tends to move markets. Other report and events to consider include: U.S. existing home sales, Philly Fed index, Canada’s retail sales, GB retail sales, Canada’s CPI, German and French manufacturing PMI, U.S. housing starts, GB’s employment report, and German ZEW economic sentiment.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 18th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 2% as of the last meeting; this report may still move the Aussie dollar and perhaps indicate what’s up ahead for RBA’s policy;

Tuesday, April 19th

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for March. Back in February, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 4.3 point; the current estimates are for a rise to 8.2;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will release for March 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly update; in the last report, total permits declined to 1,170 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,200 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts increased to 1,180 thousand houses; in the next report, this figure is expected to edge down to 1,170 thousand houses;

14:30 – Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Credit Suisse Global Macro Conference, in New York;

15:15 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Mark Carney will testify before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London;

16:00 – Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz Testifies: Stephen Poloz will testify, along with Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa;

Wednesday, April 20th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last report, this index rose to 2.1%; current market estimates are for the index to remain flat;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 18K; the rate of unemployment didn’t move from 5.1% and is expected to maintain this level this time as well;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for March 2016; in the February report, the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to bounce back to 5.29 million houses;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 15th;

Thursday, April 21st

09:30 – GB Retail Sales: In the upcoming report the market expects sales to have edged down by 0.1% compared to the previous month;

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: This will be the main event of for week, even though the ECB isn’t expected to introduce any new policy measures. Also, the ECB won’t release any updates on economic projections. But any show involving Mario Draghi is likely to raise volatility. Any hints of possible further rate cuts in the future and more QE may help curb the recent rally of the Euro against the U.S. dollar;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 15th; in the last report, jobless claims fell to 253K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly rise to 265K;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey, the growth rate rose from -2.8 in February to 12.4 in March. This time, the index is expected to slightly decline to 8.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 15th;

Friday, April 22nd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last report, France’s PMI declined to 49.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting as of March. While Germany’s PMI inched up to 50.4 – the industry is expanding at a faster pace; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to further rise to 51;

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI rose by 0.5%, M-o-M; it’s expected to edged down to 0.4% in the next report;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding February, sales rose by 1.2%;

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