Financial Market Outlook for February 15-19

Here is a short overview for the week of February 15th to 19th of the main report and events of the week including: Minutes of last FOMC meeting, U.S. CPI, Philly Fed index, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, GB’s retail sales, Japan’s GDP for Q4, OPEC’s monthly update, RBA’s minutes of policy meeting, Canada’s CPI, GB’s CPI, China’s trade balance, and U.S. housing starts.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 15th

23:50 (Sunday) – Japan’s Fourth Quarter GDP 2015: This will be the preliminary estimate for Japan’s GDP for Q4, back in Q3 the economy grew by only 0.3% and this time the estimates are for a contraction of 0.2%. A lower than expected figure could suggest possible more monetary stimulus to follow;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month and is expected to moderately rise again in the next report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

14:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: He is expected to testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 2% as of the last meeting; this report may still move the Aussie dollar and perhaps indicate what’s next vis-à-vis RBA’s policy;

Tuesday, February 16th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly update, the CPI edged up to 0.2% in December. The current projections are for the inflation to rise again in January to 0.3%;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for January. Back in December, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell to 10.2 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment declines again, this may imply slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a fall to 0.1;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding December 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 1.1%; in the upcoming report, the market projects sales rose again by 0.9%;

Wednesday, February 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last report, this index slipped to 2%; current market estimates are for the index to decline further to 1.9%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 4.3K; the rate of unemployment edged down to 5.1% and is expected to inch down again to 5%;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during December, building permits declined to 1,230 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest fall to 1,210K;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for January 2016; in the recent update, housing starts decreased to 1,150 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to January 2016. In last month’s report regarding December, this index for finished goods fell by 0.2%, m-o-m; the core PPI edged up by 0.1%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during January; as of December, industrial production fell by 0.4%;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: The minutes will provide another look regarding the Fed’s future rate decisions; this will be the main report of the week that could stir up markets if the markets were to draw some preliminary conclusions about what’s next for the FOMC;

Thursday, February 18th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for December the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slipped by 1K people. The weakness in the commodities markets and China’s economic woes could adversely impact the Australian’s economy (see here the recent report);

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the previous update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1.6%; the market estimates the annual rate will rise to 1.9%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 12th; in the last report, jobless claims decreased to 269K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly rise to 275K;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey, the growth rate fell again from -5.9 in December to -3.5 in January. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to -3.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 12th;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 12th;

Friday, February 19th

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain fell by 1%;

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the recent report, public net borrowing dropped to a surplus of 6.9 billion pounds; this measures the difference between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments;

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI declined by 0.4%, M-o-M;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the January report regarding December 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 1.1%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the developments in the core consumer price index for January 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in December, the CPI edged down by 0.1%; the core CPI edged up again by 0.1%; this time, the CPI is expected to slip again by 0.1% and core CPI to rise by 0.2%;

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