Financial Market Outlook for February 22-26

Equities recovered last week as the bearish market sentiment subsided and oil prices started off the week strong on account of the latest deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to hold their output at January levels. But a few unimpressive economic reports could bring equities and commodities back down again.  Here is a short overview for the week of February 22nd to 26th of the main report and events of the week including: U.S. GDP for Q4, EU manufacturing PMI, German business climate, EU monetary development, U.S. core durable goods, GB’s GDP for Q4, Canada’s CPI, GB’s CPI, EU manufacturing PMI, and U.S. consumer confidence.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 22nd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the recent January report, France’s PMI slipped to 50 i.e. the manufacturing conditions aren’t expanding or contracting. And Germany’s PMI decreased to 52.1 – the industry is expanding at a slower rate; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI will remain unchanged at 52.1;

Tuesday, February 23rd

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of February. In the January report, the business climate index fell to 107.3; currently, the market expects another slide to 107.3;

10:45 – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: Jordan is expected to give a speech titled “Monetary Policy in the Neighborhood of the Euro Zone” at the Policy Center Lecture, in Frankfurt;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the latest report for January, consumer confidence index rose again to 98.1. The current estimates are that the index inch down to 97.6;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for January 2016; in the December report, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to edge down to 5.42 million houses;

Wednesday, February 24th

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to January; in the previous report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 544,000; current estimates are for a slower growth with an annual rate of 522,000;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 19th;

Thursday, February 25th

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for Q4 2015. As of Q3, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure declined by 9.2% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for another 3% fall in Q4;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of January 2016. In the December report, the annual growth rate for M3 fell to 4.7%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to remain at 4.7%;

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q4 2015: This report will refer to the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2015; current projections are for a growth rate of 0.5% — unchanged from the first estimate;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the recent flash estimate, the CPI rose again by 0.2% in January;

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to January and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of December  2015, core durable goods declined by 1.2%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to edge up by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 19th; in the recent report, jobless claims decreased to 262K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly gain to 271K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 19th;

Friday, February 26th

13:30 – Second Estimate of U.S GDP for 4Q 2015: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s Q4 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q4 the GDP grew by 0.7% — a bit lower than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to fall to 0.5%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the shifts in U.S. inflation. In the previous report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) was unchanged. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up by 0.1%;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 92;

For further reading: