Financial Market Outlook for June 13-17

The highly expected FOMC meeting will take center stage this week and will eclipse the major economic reports that will be released this week. Nonetheless, until the FOMC statement is released, some economic data could drive market sentiment; some of these reports include: U.S. CPI and PPI, U.S. retail sales, Philly Fed index, BOJ, BOE and SNB rate decisions, Canada’s CPI, GB employment report, U.S. industrial production, GB CPI, U.S. housing starts, GB’s retail sales, and China’s industrial production.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 13th

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the latest monthly report, China industrial production slid to an annual rate of 6% — lower than market expectations; if the report shows another slowdown this could further feed the bearish market sentiment;

Tuesday, June 14th

09:30 – GB CPI: Based on the previous update, the CPI slipped to 0.3% in April;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refer to May; in the last April update, retail sales rose by 1.3% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.8%;

Wednesday, June 15th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the latest report, this index rose to 2%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined by 2.4K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.1% and is expected to maintain this level this time as well;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to May 2016. In the latest month’s report regarding April, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2%, m-o-m; the core PPI edged up by 0.1%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report that will be released on Thursday;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding April 2016, manufacturing sales fell by 0.9%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during May; as of April, industrial production increased by 0.7%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 10th;

19:00 –FOMC Meeting and press conference: The highly anticipated FOMC meeting could result in little impact to the markets if the FOMC maintains a very balanced statement that won’t rule out a rate hike in the coming months but also acknowledge there are some reasons for concern about the global risk and the progress of the U.S. economy. Currently, the expectations are very low for a rate hike; the focus will be on the dot plot – see if the FOMC changes the outlook of the rate hike – and economic projections; this meeting will also be followed by a press conference;

Thursday, June 16th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent April report the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 10.8K people (see here the recent report);

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In this Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will decided if it’s time to introduce more monetary stimulus. The BOJ will also release a revised economic outlook;

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; the SNB isn’t expected to make any major changes to its policy;

09:30 – GB Retail Sales: In the upcoming report the market expects sales to have risen by 1.3% compared to the previous month;

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to raise rates in the upcoming policy meeting;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the shifts in the core consumer price index for May 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in April, the CPI rose by 0.4%; the core CPI  edged up by 0.2%; this time, the CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 10th; in the last report, jobless claims fell to 264K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 267K;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey, the growth rate rose from -1.6 in April to -1.8 in May; in the next report, the index is expected to rise to 1.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 10th;

Friday, June 17th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI rose by 0.2%, M-o-M;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will release for May 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly report; in the recent update, total permits rose to 1,120 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,150 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts increased to 1,170 thousand houses; in the next report, this figure is expected to edge up to 1,150 thousand houses;

16:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: He is expected to speak in Munich;

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