Financial Market Outlook for March 14-18

The market expected a lot from Draghi and he sure delivered in the recent ECB meeting for more QE and lower rates. This week, the focus will shift back to the U.S. with the FOMC meeting. But there are also rate decisions from BOJ, BOE, and SNB. Here is a short overview for the week of March 14th to 18th of the other main report and events of the week including: U.S. CPI, Philly Fed index, JOLTS report, U.S. PPI, Canada’s retail sales, OPEC’s monthly update, U.S. retail sales, Canada’s CPI, U.S. industrial production, Australia and GB’s employment report, and U.S. housing starts.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 14th

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for February 2016; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In this Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will decided if it’s time to step up and introduce additional monetary measures. The bank will also publish a revised outlook of the economy. This time the expectations are for the BOJ to come up with new measures that may include lower rates or more QE or both;

Tuesday, March 15th

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refer to February; in the last January update, retail sales edged up by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.1% as well; currently, the market expects core sales to contract by 0.2% and retail sales to edge down by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to February 2016. In last month’s report regarding January, this index for finished goods edged up by 0.1%, m-o-m; the core PPI rose by 0.4%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report;

Wednesday, March 16th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the recent report, this index slipped to 1.9%; current market estimates are for the index to bounce back to 2%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the latest monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 14.8K; the rate of unemployment remained at 5.1% and is expected to maintain this level this time;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding January 2016, manufacturing sales rose by 1.21%;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will release for February 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly update; in the previous report, total permits declined to 1,200 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for no change in permits;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts decreased to 1,100 thousand houses; in the next report, this figure is expected to rise to 1,150 thousand houses;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the developments in the core consumer price index for February 2016. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in January, the CPI didn’t change; the core CPI rose again by 0.3%; this time, the CPI is expected to slip again by 0.2% and core CPI to edge up by 0.1%;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during February; as of January, industrial production increased by 0.9%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 11th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting: This will be the second FOMC meeting in 2016. And this time the FOMC will also release an update on its economic outlook and the dot plot. Following the release of the statement, Chair Yellen will have a press conference. The market doesn’t expect any change in policy and lower outlook for the Fed’s cash rate in the dot plot;

Thursday, March 17th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for January the rate of unemployment rose to 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slipped by 7.9K people. The ongoing weakening of the Aussie dollar may start to help the country’s employment situation (see here the recent report);

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; the SNB isn’t expected to make any major changes to its policy;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the last flash estimate, the CPI rose again by 0.3% in February;

13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will have, yet again, no dissenters;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 11th; in the recent report, jobless claims decreased to 259K; the expectations are  for this number to slightly rise to 267K;

13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the latest survey, the growth rate fell again from -3.5 in January to -2.8 in February. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to -1.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for January, excluding the farming industry; in the recent update for December, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.61 million; in the next report, the number is expected to reach 5.60 million;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 11th;

Friday, March 18th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI rose by 0.3%, M-o-M;

13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding January, manufacturing sales fell by 1.6%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous report, the sentiment index declined to 90.7; for the next report, the index is expected to rise to 92.3;

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