Financial Market Outlook for March 21-25

The Federal Reserve released a dovish statement that including lower outlook for the Fed’s fund rate in 2016-2018 and even the terminal rate was reduced by 0.25 bp to 3.25%. So without making any changes its cash rate or introducing new stimulus, this news was enough to bring down the USD and pull back up commodities prices. This week will be a lighter one that includes U.S. GDP for Q4, EU manufacturing PMI, German business climate, U.S. core durable goods, German ZEW economic sentiment, EU manufacturing PMI, and U.S. new home sales.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 21st

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for February 2016; in the January report, the number of homes sold edged down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to edge up to 5.32 million houses;

Tuesday, March 22nd

06:30 – Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak about global financial sector resilience, volatility, and connectedness at the Australian Securities & Investment Commission Annual Forum, in Sydney;

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last February report, France’s PMI inched up to 50.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are slowly expanding. And Germany’s PMI fell again to 50.2 – the industry is expanding at a slower pace; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to bounce back to 50.9;

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of March. In the February report, the business climate index fell to 105.7; currently, the market expects a modest gain to 106.1;

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent monthly update, the CPI edged up to 0.3% in January. The current projections are for the inflation to rise again in February to 0.4%;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for February. Back in January, the ZEW indicator for Germany declined to 1 point; the current estimates are for a rise to 6.3;

Wednesday, March 23rd

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to February; in the last report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes decreased to an annual rate of 494,000; current estimates are for a higher growth with an annual rate of 512,000;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 18th;

Thursday, March 24th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to February and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of January  2016, core durable goods rose by 1.8%, month over month;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 18th; in the recent report, jobless claims increased to 265K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 18th;

Friday, March 25th

13:30 – Final Estimate of U.S GDP for 4Q 2015: This will be the third and final estimate of U.S’s Q4 2015 real GDP growth. In the last estimate for Q4 the GDP grew by 1% — a bit lower than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to fall to 0.7%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

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