Financial Market Outlook for October 10-14

The latest NFP report fell short again of market estimates with a gain of 156K jobs; but this hasn’t changed the view of the markets that the FOMC is likely to raise rates at least once this year – and most likely in December. And the concerns over the Brexit effect have brought back down the GBP. This week’s focus will be on the progress of the U.S. elections, and the second Presidential debate to be held on Sunday night (ET) along with the developments in Europe with respect to Brexit. Besides the debate the main events and reports for the week include: U.S. retail sales, FOMC’s chair Yellen’s speech, German ZEW economic sentiment, China’s trade balance, U.S. JOLTS, minutes of the FOMC meeting, and Japan’s current account.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, October 10th

23:50 – Japan’s Current Account: Back in September the current account declined to 1.45 trillion yen; and in the upcoming report is expected to reach 1.58 trillion yen;

Tuesday, October 11th

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. Back in August, the ZEW indicator for Germany picked up again by 0.5 points; the current estimates are for a gain of 4.2;

Wednesday, October 12th

15:00 – U.S. JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for August, excluding the farming industry; in the recent update for July, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.87 million; in the next report, the number is expected to slightly fall to 5.79 million;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: This will be one of the main event of the week that could provide some perspective regarding the recent FOMC meeting and what’s next for the FOMC; the FOMC didn’t change its policy back in September and may raise rates coming December; these minutes could indicate how close the Fed is to actually raise rates this year;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month and is expected to moderately expand again in the next report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

Thursday, October 13th

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 7th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 252K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 7th;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 7th;

Friday, October 14th

02:30 – China’s CPI: China’s consumer price index declined to 1.3% and is expected to pick up to 1.6% in the upcoming report;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2016. In the latest month’s report regarding August, this index for finished goods remained flat, m-o-m; the core PPI edged up by 0.1%; this time, both core PPI and PPI are expected to rise by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively;

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the last August update, retail sales declined by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail fell by 0.1%; in the next report, the expectations are for a gain of 0.6% and 0.4% for retail sales and core sales, respectively;

15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; based on the recent report, the sentiment index slipped to 89.8; for the next report, the index is expected to rise to 92.1;

18:30 – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks: Chair Yellen will deliver a speech titled “Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference;

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