This week was a short one because of the holidays (thanksgiving), therefore there are only three days in this weekly recap comparison. In order to review the main news of November 26th you can read my previous post.
I have added herein a table that summarizes the main changes in the passing week between November 22nd and 24th:
* This figure is calculated based on the percent change from the price at the beginning of the week compare to the price at the end of the week
The table above presents the range of WTI crude oil price between 83.26 $/b and 80.79 $/b – a range of 2.47$/b. This fluctuation represents a decrease in the level of volatility of crude oil price compare to last week and also a decrease of nearly 0.6 percent in the average price of this week compare to last week’s average price.
On average, the spot price of WTI changed by 0.67% and its price increased by 2.49% from the beginning to the middle of the week.
In regards to Natural Gas prices (Nymex Henry Hub Future), they have also shown a similar rise of 2.58% between the beginning of the week and the middle of the week. This week’s average price was 4.34 $/MMBTU a rise of 9.1% compare to last week’s average.
When trying to analyze the changes of these prices most of then are attributed to the following news items:
- Monday, November 22nd: Ireland’s 85 billion Euro financial aids. At the beginning of the week it was reported the current Prime Minister of Ireland, along with the Irish government need to pass the country’s budget for next year, and reach an agreement with the European Union and the IMF on the 85 billion Euro aid package and its terms. As this issue continued throughout the week, the Euro/USD continued falling and Ireland’s yields on its bonds rose and they are currently, according to Bloomberg, traded at 9.17% yield.
- Tuesday, November 23rd: North Korea firing near the South Korea’s sea boarder and claimed the firing is part of a military drill. As a result, there were many speculations around the reason for this firing; some included the death of North Korea dictator – Kim Jong-il. These rumors later were reveled to be pure speculation. Nevertheless, for a while this news stirs up many markets, including commodities and currencies.
- Wednesday, November 24th: The US department of labor presents some encouraging statistics showing signs of some recovery of the US economy. The figures supporting this claim show that jobless claims continue to fall, while consumer spending and income are on the rise. As a result of this news, it is speculated that crude oil prices rose that day.
The following graphs show the changes of WTI spot price, Europe Brent spot price and NYMEX future prices:
In the final graph it shows the crude oil prices and natural gas price (Nymex Henry Hub Future Prices) daily percent change ranging between an almost 1 percent decline to Europe Brent spot price at the beginning of the week, and an over a 4 percent increase at the middle of the week to, yet again, Europe Brent spot price.
This only shows that Europe Brent spot price was the most volatile commodity among the energy commodities I have analyzed herein.
